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Restaurants Are Facing a Chef Shortage


DonRocks

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"Restaurants Are Facing a Chef Shortage" by Erik Sherman on fortune.com

My, how things have changed in the past few years. Chefs used to ask me for job advice *all the time*, and my advice was quite simple: "If you're in a secure job, *stay there*, even if it's not what you want to be doing, and even if you're not making what you want to be making." There were almost no openings, and for a chef to jump ship five years ago with no place to go was economic suicide.

Now, however, my advice is completely different. I should be charging people to hear this, but I'll just come out and say it: *Now* is the time to lock in long-term job security. Chefs, *you* are in the driver's seat, and salary alone isn't enough, because no matter how much you're making now, when the economy turns (and make no mistake: It's going to turn), all a restaurateur has to do is fire you, and that big salary that you're making right now is, all of a sudden, gone. Approach your employer, and get a written contract guaranteeing you long-term job security - that is more important right now than salary.

You can value that advice at what it just cost you (nothing), but I know I'm right. We are starting to reach an apex in terms of net restaurant openings (openings are increasing at a *decreasing* rate), and unless the long-term trend I'm detecting reverses itself, and starts going back up, you are, right now, very close to being at your peak negotiating position. I could be off by a year or two, but so what? If you're going to go out on your own, do it *now* instead of three years from now, while you have maximum leverage and while investment money is there. I'm not saying "the shit is going to hit the fan," but the alternative to that is either stagnation, or a long, slow decline - the past three years have shown an unsustainable level of growth (both in restaurants and housing prices (sorry folks, I know you don't want to hear that, but it's true)). December of 2007 is not that long ago, and we've not only recovered, but have actually surpassed the levels seen before "The Great Recession" and "The Worst Economic Crisis Since The Great Depression." All that, just slightly over seven years from when it began? I don't think so. Things were unsustainable in late-2007, and they're unsustainable in mid-2015. I have no idea when the peak will occur, but I do know that it will.

I'll say it one more time: Lock in to wherever you want to be in five years, and get it in writing if you can. You are in the driver's seat, and you're quite possibly worth more right now than you will be five years from now. If your employer has the legal right to dismiss you without cause, do something about it, because you *will* be dismissed without cause once this economy moves south. Get health insurance, and do whatever you can to get the best possible *long-term* deal that you can get, and do it in the next year. Think about what will happen if you develop a chronic disability, and get insurance to cover it (and *don't* deduct the premiums). If your employer says, "We can't afford it," then ask them how they could afford to just open their sixth restaurant. (And by the way, this advice applies not only to chefs, but also to sous chefs and line cooks: *Now* is the time to get that advancement, and to get it securely, in writing - don't trust anyone with your financial well-being, and remember that oral agreements are worth the paper they're written on. If you get a promotion now, without a written guarantee, then you're going to be desperate and looking for work in a few years.) And remember: There's no better "written guarantee" than an up-front signing bonus. Unheard of, you say? Well, make it heard of.

And I ask you, respectfully, not to call me for free advice - I've done this dozens of times, and I've done it dozens of times too often because I have trouble saying no to people. If you're actively posting on the website, on a regular basis, then that's a different story, but please don't call me out of the blue if you haven't even signed on here in a year.

"Great Recession" my eye.    140529131432-dow-since-2007-1024x576.png

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Not so hot, eh?

Exactly. I'm not sure if you were agreeing with me or disagreeing with me, but my purely observational opinion is that, considering where we started from in 2007, things got a little too good, a little too quickly, and I'd be lying if I said I wasn't concerned about it.

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Exactly. I'm not sure if you were agreeing with me or disagreeing with me, but my purely observational opinion is that, considering where we started from in 2007, things got a little too good, a little too quickly, and I'd be lying if I said I wasn't concerned about it.

And I'm not sure exactly what you're arguing for. You seem to pooh-pooh, above, the notion that there was a Great Recession. Well, despite the hot stock market and the possibly even hotter real-estate market (at least in places like Washington), there was a very Great Recession indeed, and we are still living in an economy that is, overall, depressed. We're doing better than most of Europe, because we managed to avoid most of the lunatic austerity that was embraced by the suicidally misguided governments of most European countries. But consider this chart, with data from the St. Louis Fed, which is a picture of a depression that persists:

fredgraph_zpseoo6vrxv.jpg

The gap between actual and potential GDP, which adds up to many trillions of dollars over the period of 2007 to the present, represents widespread, real suffering among the U.S. population.

None of which is to say that your foreboding of a coming crash in stock and real-estate prices is misplaced. Far from it. I share in the dread.

(By the way, FRED is marvelous. I got it to draw the chart above with a couple of clicks.)

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And I'm not sure exactly what you're arguing for. You seem to pooh-pooh, above, the notion that there was a Great Recession. 

I'm not arguing for anything, but I have had multiple people in the industry write me and thank me for my thoughts.

We have such a fundamental divide here that I'm not going to discuss the economy. (There's no need to restate your position; I linked to it, and I'm not going to spend any time justifying why a $10-20 trillion debt is threatening.)

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