Restaurants Post-2008 Recession - Lots of Newcomers, High Prices, and Fast Casual-Galore

[DonRocks]

32 minutes ago, Marty L. said:

Rack of lamb at Tosca currently $44

You know who really pushed the price point up in DC for fine dining? Fabio. I distinctly remember a Facebook post of his that was self-musing about what the big deal was about paying $40 for something ... I think it was lamb. It wasn't anything critical, but I recall thinking that he was going to make a play to get prices up in this town (and I'm not sure that's a bad thing; just reporting something with a foggy memory, before I fly out the door).

[Mark Slater]

18 minutes ago, DonRocks said:

You know who really pushed the price point up in DC for fine dining? Fabio. I distinctly remember a Facebook post of his that was self-musing about what the big deal was about paying $40 for something ... I think it was lamb. It wasn't anything critical, but I recall thinking that he was going to make a play to get prices up in this town (and I'm not sure that's a bad thing; just reporting something with a foggy memory, before I fly out the door).

30 years ago, Jean-Louis was the first restaurant in Washington with a $95 tasting menu option.

[DonRocks]

4 hours ago, Mark Slater said:

30 years ago, Jean-Louis was the first restaurant in Washington with a $95 tasting menu option.

Yes, of course, but restaurant costs have really gone up (like 20-25%) just since the recovery from the 2008 recession - I think.

[Poivrot Farci]

I don’t know where Tosca’s or Fabio’s lamb comes from, but rack of lamb is a premium cut and the price can very well be a matter of supply (droughts have limited the stock) vs demand (people like lamb chops and lamb is the harbinger of spring menus) and perhaps they pay their staff very well or affluent customers subsidize their absurd rents. Lamb is an expensive proposition to begin with and overall is the most expensive of common land food animals (pork/beef/poultry). They demand lots of work, health checks and sheering for most breeds -much more husbandry than pork and beef. Elysian Fields charges north of $40/lb retail for rack of lamb. It is unfortunate that Tosca does not list the provenance of the lamb (neither the beef nor the veal), because if it is grain-finished Colorado commodity and the staff at Tosca is paid a miserly wage then there are suckers for lamb happily being fleeced.

Food has been devalued by industrialization. Quality food (by all metrics of quality) will cost more but the baseline appears to be frighteningly cheap. At the supermarket today, both commodity apples and pork chops are $2.99/lb. Chicken is even less. It stands to reason that there are far more resources, energy, manpower and waste management needed to bring a pig and it’s most valued cut to market than apples. Either apples are too expensive or pork is too cheap. Either way, our food system is fuuuucked in every direction and dimension. And there is a stunning amount of deceptive menu labeling and outright fraud -maybe that should be one of the James Beard Foundation’s “values” worthy of a trophy.

Last year we had a fella* scoffed at the cost of his breakfast sandwich at our store. He ultimately drove away pleased, in his Mercedes-Benz. Depends on what you value.

*The owner of fast casual Fresh & Co in NYC, who causally and liberally uses “organic” on their “about” page while most of the ingredients on the menus are anything but and by way of California, Mexico and factory farms in between. Satur farm is indeed a local operation and the owner is a reliable customer, but it is curious that no one ever has to weed their perfectly manicured rows. It’s like nothing else grows but the greens they intend.

[DonRocks]

1 hour ago, Poivrot Farci said:

Either apples are too expensive or pork is too cheap.

Hey, don't be messing with my McRib.

[Pool Boy]

13 hours ago, Poivrot Farci said:

I don’t know where Tosca’s or Fabio’s lamb comes from, but rack of lamb is a premium cut and the price can very well be a matter of supply (droughts have limited the stock) vs demand (people like lamb chops and lamb is the harbinger of spring menus) and perhaps they pay their staff very well or affluent customers subsidize their absurd rents. Lamb is an expensive proposition to begin with and overall is the most expensive of common land food animals (pork/beef/poultry). They demand lots of work, health checks and sheering for most breeds -much more husbandry than pork and beef. Elysian Fields charges north of $40/lb retail for rack of lamb. It is unfortunate that Tosca does not list the provenance of the lamb (neither the beef nor the veal), because if it is grain-finished Colorado commodity and the staff at Tosca is paid a miserly wage then there are suckers for lamb happily being fleeced.

Food has been devalued by industrialization. Quality food (by all metrics of quality) will cost more but the baseline appears to be frighteningly cheap. At the supermarket today, both commodity apples and pork chops are $2.99/lb. Chicken is even less. It stands to reason that there are far more resources, energy, manpower and waste management needed to bring a pig and it’s most valued cut to market than apples. Either apples are too expensive or pork is too cheap. Either way, our food system is fuuuucked in every direction and dimension. And there is a stunning amount of deceptive menu labeling and outright fraud -maybe that should be one of the James Beard Foundation’s “values” worthy of a trophy.

Last year we had a fella* scoffed at the cost of his breakfast sandwich at our store. He ultimately drove away pleased, in his Mercedes-Benz. Depends on what you value.

*The owner of fast casual Fresh & Co in NYC, who causally and liberally uses “organic” on their “about” page while most of the ingredients on the menus are anything but and by way of California, Mexico and factory farms in between. Satur farm is indeed a local operation and the owner is a reliable customer, but it is curious that no one ever has to weed their perfectly manicured rows. It’s like nothing else grows but the greens they intend.

Sad but true. You try to do your best to source the best stuff you can that makes the most sense. One could argue eating any meat is basically insane from a cost perspective. That said, I love meat. Pretty much every kind of meat. But I prefer to be as responsible as I can reasonably be. I know what kind of fish is sustainable and I have my favorites there and I try to stay in that wheelhouse, just as an example.

But I am also in tune with real estate, rents, labor costs and my personal desire for things I find great in a civilized dining experience and am willing to pay for it. It may curtail my overall outings, but where there is a will there is a way. I spend money on only a few things, and dining is basically at the top of the list, but still, there is a limit. Besides being overly tired of tasting menus, I find that I more often get what I want when I order what I want so I can really be one with the dish I crave off of the current menu and and can spend time to experience it. It really is the experience of it all that you are paying for, with the food as the core, the anchor, the guiding light of it all. Experimenting with bits and pieces of different things on the plate now on the same fork, to see what the chef was thinking, sparking the epiphany, the revelation, the satisfaction. It can be incredible.

But I digress.

[DonRocks]

6 hours ago, Pool Boy said:

Besides being overly tired of tasting menus, I find that I more often get what I want when I order what I want so I can really be one with the dish I crave off of the current menu and and can spend time to experience it. It really is the experience of it all that you are paying for, with the food as the core, the anchor, the guiding light of it all. Experimenting with bits and pieces of different things on the plate now on the same fork, to see what the chef was thinking, sparking the epiphany, the revelation, the satisfaction. It can be incredible.

You and me both, brother. Tasting menus are great when you're out of town, and visiting a major restaurant that you may never return to, but for me, that's about it.

[Marty L.]

14 hours ago, Poivrot Farci said:

I don’t know where Tosca’s or Fabio’s lamb comes from, but rack of lamb is a premium cut and the price can very well be a matter of supply (droughts have limited the stock) vs demand (people like lamb chops and lamb is the harbinger of spring menus) and perhaps they pay their staff very well or affluent customers subsidize their absurd rents. Lamb is an expensive proposition to begin with and overall is the most expensive of common land food animals (pork/beef/poultry). They demand lots of work, health checks and sheering for most breeds -much more husbandry than pork and beef. Elysian Fields charges north of $40/lb retail for rack of lamb. It is unfortunate that Tosca does not list the provenance of the lamb (neither the beef nor the veal), because if it is grain-finished Colorado commodity and the staff at Tosca is paid a miserly wage then there are suckers for lamb happily being fleeced.

Food has been devalued by industrialization. Quality food (by all metrics of quality) will cost more but the baseline appears to be frighteningly cheap. At the supermarket today, both commodity apples and pork chops are $2.99/lb. Chicken is even less. It stands to reason that there are far more resources, energy, manpower and waste management needed to bring a pig and it’s most valued cut to market than apples. Either apples are too expensive or pork is too cheap. Either way, our food system is fuuuucked in every direction and dimension. And there is a stunning amount of deceptive menu labeling and outright fraud -maybe that should be one of the James Beard Foundation’s “values” worthy of a trophy.

Last year we had a fella* scoffed at the cost of his breakfast sandwich at our store. He ultimately drove away pleased, in his Mercedes-Benz. Depends on what you value.

*The owner of fast casual Fresh & Co in NYC, who causally and liberally uses “organic” on their “about” page while most of the ingredients on the menus are anything but and by way of California, Mexico and factory farms in between. Satur farm is indeed a local operation and the owner is a reliable customer, but it is curious that no one ever has to weed their perfectly manicured rows. It’s like nothing else grows but the greens they intend.

Great post, Julien. Just to be clear:  I didn't mean to suggest that Tosca was, uh, fleecing anyone--merely that it's become *very* expensive to eat out at many places in DC, even as compared to the inflation-adjusted past.  For many places, including, say, Tail Up Goat (speaking of lamb ribs), the prices are completely fair, in light of costs (labor, food, etc.).  (Perhaps that's even true of Fabio's joints -- I don't know.)  And these places presumably aren't having trouble filing the seats (even at, e.g., Bros. & Sisters and A Rake's Progress, where the prices seem to reflect the hotel setting).  Even so, it means that for many of us such dining out is, by necessity, only a special-occasion thing.  Just a guess, but the spots that seem to be much better bang-for-your-buck (e.g., 2 Amys; Seki) probably have somewhat more reasonable rents, by virtue of their quirky locales.

[Poivrot Farci]

6 hours ago, Marty L. said:

  For many places, including, say, Tail Up Goat (speaking of lamb ribs), the prices are completely fair, in light of costs (labor, food, etc.).

Yes, but lamb ribs (breast) are anywhere from 1/3-to-1/5th the price of rack of lamb which is always going to be different shades of expensive (BLTsteak's & Prime Rib's  double cut lamb rack are $47 -don't know the size) compared to other cuts -however, the Aussie/NZ cuts that are shipped from the other side of the planet are much cheaper.  Either way, lamb is going to be expensive and it might not be an ideal benchmark for the cost of food.  I gauge costs based on wholesale/retail pricing which fluctuates throughout the year but don't have all the markups of a restaurant, and even then, I once saw Sunkist blood oranges priced at 3 for $2 at the Harris Teeter and later that day the same Sunkist blood oranges priced 2 for $3 at Whole Foods.