Brexit - The UK's Potential Withdrawal from the European Union

[Count Bobulescu]

I hate it when people post stuff not of their own creation, without links, so call me a hypocrite.........  From this morning's Quartz Daily Brief email........

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In just three weeks, the UK is scheduled to leave the EU, to which it has belonged for the past 46 years. At this late hour, no one knows what exactly will happen.

A series of votes in Parliament next week could provide clarity or, as has been the case since the 2016 Brexit referendum, convolution. The votes on the terms and timing of Britain’s exit could still lead to a number of scenarios. Among them: a softer version of Brexit with closer ties to the EU, a second referendum, a general election, and the dreaded “no-deal Brexit” in which the UK crashes out of the bloc with no transitional arrangements in place. The first vote on Tuesday is for prime minister Theresa May’s deal, which has already been rejected once. If it is rejected again, “no one knows what will happen,” May said Friday.

Whatever does happen, damage has already been done(membership). Many companies have decided they can’t live with so much uncertainty, and have quit the UK to varying degrees. Bank of America is spending $400 million to transfer its European headquarters to Dublin. EasyJet, the UK’s largest airline, has had to transfer its ownership to non-British Europeans. Smaller companies without deep pockets for legal advice—and staff devoted to Brexit contingency planning—are more or less stuck. They are either running their businesses as usual and hoping for the best, or devoting time and money to stockpiling and other actions with the worst-case scenario in mind. Regardless, the vote’s impact on the economy hurts everyone. Even amid a global slowdown, the UK economy stands out for its sluggishness. Investment has plummeted since the referendum, and many European migrants who are key workers for low-wage sectors have already stopped coming.

Even if Brexit is softened, delayed, or canceled, the reputational damage the UK has inflicted upon itself won’t be easily repaired. Businesses won’t completely reverse their decisions to open offices abroad, uproot staff, or redirect investments away from Britain. The UK will be poorer for deciding to leave the EU, no matter how, when, or even whether it eventually quits the bloc. —Eshe Nelson

 

 

[Count Bobulescu]

Developments continue apace. Initial reaction to last night's "agreement" was that is was an agreement to agree that an agreement is not an agreement, or something like that......and whether you agree or not with that assessment seems to matter not a whit, because this morning the AG has released his legal opinion to the gummint on said agreement and says it changes nothing, which likely torpedos the vote tonight on May's plan. Tomorrow they vote on whether to take the "no deal" option off the table.

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Conclusion
15. In my letter of 13 November 2018, I advised that the Protocol would endure indefinitely in
international law and could not be brought to an end in the absence of a subsequent agreement. This
would remain the case even if parties were still negotiating many years later, and even if the parties
believed that talks have clearly broken down and there was no prospect of a future relationship
agreement.
16. I also advised that in the specific case that situation was due to the EU’s want of good faith and best
endeavours, because of the difficulties of proof and the egregious nature of the conduct that would
be required to establish a breach by the EU of those obligations, it would be highly unlikely that the
United Kingdom could take advantage of the remedies available to it for such a breach under the
Withdrawal Agreement.
17. I now consider that the legally binding provisions of the Joint Instrument and the content of the
Unilateral Declaration reduce the risk that the United Kingdom could be indefinitely and involuntarily
detained within the Protocol’s provisions at least in so far as that situation had been brought about by
the bad faith or want of best endeavours of the EU.
18. It may be thought that if both parties deploy a sincere desire to reach agreement and the necessary
diligence, flexibility and goodwill implied by the amplified duties set out in the Joint Instrument, it is
highly unlikely that a satisfactory subsequent agreement to replace the Protocol will not be
concluded. But as I have previously advised, that is a political judgment, which, given the mutual
incentives of the parties and the available options and competing risks, I remain strongly of the view
it is right to make.
19. However, the legal risk remains unchanged that if through no such demonstrable failure of either
party, but simply because of intractable differences, that situation does arise, the United Kingdom
would have, at least while the fundamental circumstances remained the same, no internationally
lawful means of exiting the Protocol’s arrangements, save by agreement.

Former OZ PM Kevin Rudd is quoted in the Guardian.....

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I’m struck, as the British parliament moves towards the endgame on Brexit, with the number of times Australia, Canada, New Zealand and India have been advanced by the Brexiteers in the public debate as magical alternatives to Britain’s current trade and investment relationship with the European Union. This is the nuttiest of the many nutty arguments that have emerged from the Land of Hope and Glory set now masquerading as the authentic standard-bearers of British patriotism. It’s utter bollocks.

 

 

[Count Bobulescu]

On 3/8/2019 at 11:28 PM, DonRocks said:

This is outstanding.

To reinforce Kevin Rudd's comment quoted above.....

Combined, EU + US accounts for about 66% of all UK trade, imports + exports. Currently they benefit from EU rules for trade with the US. Three weeks from now, they won't have a new deal with the US, and the  EU is unclear. If they don't have a deal with the EU, then they won't have one with the US either. Once they're out they need two separate deals.

 

[Count Bobulescu]

Comment lifted from an Irish forum..............

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I'm trying to follow this as much as possible but it's just getting harder. Last night the Brexit Secretary (Barclay) closed a debate on the motion to request an extension by calling on the house to back the government's motion. Then, minutes later, he voted against it. Against the government. Against the motion on extending Brexit. His motion. 

WTF?

Meanwhile, former Brexit Secretary David Davis voted with the government - despite having previously walked out because he wanted a hard(er) Brexit than the Prime Minister. 

And a motion for a second referendum was rejected by people who want a second referendum. The People's Vote campaign said yesterday wasn't the time to push this - but it might be next week.  

Back in the real world, I just invoiced someone in the UK - which is rare for me. Reverse VAT applies under EU directive something something. I asked them what would happen post-Brexit from a VAT perspective. They don't know but they think they are leaving in two weeks. Even though, if they had been paying attention to the new, they'd know they almost definitely are not

.

[Count Bobulescu]

UK Speaker Throw Wrench at Cat Among Pigeons, and then some.........

[Count Bobulescu]

T. May went to Brussels seeking an extension from 03/29 to 06/30 but got either 04/12 or 05/22 depending.......This Brexit racket would wear a body out.......

 

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So what happens now? Well, if the House of Commons passes the twice-rejected Brexit deal in the coming weeks, Britain will have until May 22 to complete its withdrawal from the EU. That’s the simple equation.

More nuanced is what happens if the deal doesn’t pass. In that scenario, the cliff-edge is merely delayed until April 12. If May has no agreement in place by then and chooses not to participate in European elections, we’re back into no-deal territory. If she has no accord in place and wants to seek a longer extension, she’ll need to hold those elections.

[DonRocks]

20 hours ago, Count Bobulescu said:

T. May went to Brussels seeking an extension from 03/29 to 06/30 but got either 04/12 or 05/22 depending.......This Brexit racket would wear a body out.......

Will she get an extension? What's the downside for the Continent not to grant it?

Does anyone actively want her to fail?

Given that this seems like a hasty mistake, isn't there a possible way out? Even powers-that-be enjoy stability.

[Count Bobulescu]

10 hours ago, DonRocks said:

Will she get an extension? What's the downside for the Continent not to grant it?

Does anyone actively want her to fail?

Given that this seems like a hasty mistake, isn't there a possible way out? Even powers-that-be enjoy stability.

To get an extension Parliament needs next week to approve the deal they've twice rejected.

Not a lot of downside for the "Conti-Non". Much more for UK.

Nige & co, (who has split from his first baby UKIP, and claims to have a new party and candidates to pull of the shelf in the event of a general election),  plus the European Research Group (ERG), Mogglydites etc. would not complain loudly if she failed. They wouldn't reject a "no deal" option as quickly as other elements would. Think of them collectively like Tea Party Jihadists.

Possible way out.......

Petition to revoke and remain gathering signatures at record pace. Just crossed 4M at last check. Parliament "considers" all petitions above 100K.

 

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584

 

[Count Bobulescu]

In a series of eight non-binding (testing the waters) votes today Parliament rejected all options. Analysts say that this likely will make May's twice overwhelmingly rejected deal now somewhat easier to pass, particularly since she has said she's prepared to resign early.

[Count Bobulescu]

From Bloomberg.....

 

[Count Bobulescu]

[guanabana]

Politico: "How the UK lost the Brexit battle" 

[Count Bobulescu]

On 4/1/2019 at 8:20 AM, guanabana said:

Politico: "How the UK lost the Brexit battle" 

That's a good Politico piece.

Here's a good, and not very long New Yorker piece focusing more specifically on the Irish Backstop.

 

Brexit's Irish Paradox

[Count Bobulescu]

if 160,000 Tory party members follow the lead of their 313 MPs, looks like BoJo will be the next PM in a couple of weeks. Then the chances of a "surprise" fall election go up. BoJo says 10/31/19 is the drop dead deadline to leave........unless, maybe.......

[Count Bobulescu]

Leaked UK Cabinet Office document says food, fuel, and med shortages after a no-deal crash out, are not worst case scenario, rather, are likely.

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"This is not Project Fear — this is the most realistic assessment of what the public face with no deal," a senior government source told the Sunday Times. "These are likely, basic, reasonable scenarios — not the worst case."

 

 

No Deal Crashout Consequences

 

[Count Bobulescu]

The Queen, AKA Brenda, has acceded to BoJo's request to Prorogue (shut down) Parliament. The effect will be to limit time for debate on any proposals, or lack thereof. 

In a little over 24 hours 850K+ signed a petition in oppo.

 

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157