The 3-Point Shot and its Effect on Today's NBA Game

[DonRocks]

20 minutes ago, DaveO said:

An interesting article analyzing  the tremendous season the Milwaukee Bucks are having, currently and for much of the season, leading the NBA in wins and winning percentage attributes much of their success to the changes instituted by Coach Mike Budenholzer. 

I'm running out the door, and don't have time to read your post right now (much less the article), but I'm glancing at the Bucks-76ers - I've come to the sad conclusion that I no longer particularly like watching NBA basketball - and I don't know what else it could be than the 3-point shot.

Steph Curry was a pioneer in beating the system (and ruining the game). However, I don't blame him at all - he just maximized his advantage based on the current rules - Grinnell College started it all.

PS - Joel Embiid just this second had one of the best individual efforts I've seen in quite awhile ... with about 7:30 remaining in the 4th.

[DaveO]

On 3/17/2019 at 4:33 PM, DonRocks said:

 I've come to the sad conclusion that I no longer particularly like watching NBA basketball - and I don't know what else it could be than the 3-point shot.

The pro game is very different than it used to be.  Clearly the 3 pt shot and it’s emphasis b/c of analytics is the biggest change.   Changes in defensive rules have also been impactful.

One key element of the article is How Milwaukee has made much greater use of the 3 pt shot and how.

I’ve seen lots of old fans lose interest in the game over the decades—for myriads of reasons.

Meanwhile the play of the weekend that literally took my breath away was in the marvelous UNC vs Duke game.   It was NOT made by Zion Williamson, but by UNC following one of his dunks—maybe about 4-5 minutes into the video below:   Killer fast break by UNC

While the video features Zion they should have kept replaying that fast break—just beautiful team basketball 

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Teamwork (DonRocks)

[DaveO]

On 3/17/2019 at 5:33 PM, DonRocks said:

I'm running out the door, and don't have time to read your post right now (much less the article), but I'm glancing at the Bucks-76ers - I've come to the sad conclusion that I no longer particularly like watching NBA basketball - and I don't know what else it could be than the 3-point shot.

Steph Curry was a pioneer in beating the system (and ruining the game). However, I don't blame him at all - he just maximized his advantage based on the current rules - Grinnell College started it all.

@DonRocks  I’m aware you have posted this thought several times, the gist being the NBA game has changed significantly, the main reason being the 3 point shot, and you find it less enjoyable.

Can’t say that I disagree with you.  It has changed.  I just watched a significant portion of the Warriors/Houston playoff game.  Houston, the team that shoots the most 3’s, on a consistent basis, attempted, of its total number of field goals, over 60% from beyond the 3 point line. Of the remaing shots virtually were inside the paint, virtually all via drives.  They basically didn’t have a consistent down low pivot man presence and they had virtually no shots between the paint and the 3 point line;  the kind of shot that long time shooters from Jerry West to Larry Bird to Michael Jordan to Kobe Bryant to Carmelo Anthony to Kevin Durant have lived off of.   Houston plays a different game.

(BTW: The Bucks took the 2nd most 3 pointers this season though significantly less than Houston). 

The only difference I have is that I still enjoy it (or maybe I’m simply addicted to it).   It is very different from how the game used to be played wherein most shooting circulated around and inside the paint but rarely far outside 

[DaveO]

....more on Sunday's games.  As to the Buck Celtics game, it was one wherein coaching matters.   The C's played great defense against Giannis.  Great D...against a guy who killed the rest of the league most of the time.  They thwarted him down low where he has been unstoppable.  They were often able to bring in a double team and Horford simply stuck with him and played Giannis tough.  Possibly Horford is one of the only players in the NBA capable of that...being able to be with him on the outside, move with him and provide Deee down low.  The double teams made a big-VERY BIG difference.

Again as to the offensive styles.  Neither team has a big hulking down low center with a low post game.  Lopez, the Buck's big center used to be a down low center and I saw him try one or two short jumpers...but he has morphed into a 3 point shooter on the outside to help open the lanes for Giannis.  Boston's primary scorers all start on the outside.  All of them most of the time.  By most I mean over 90%. 

On drives there are a LOT of kick outs to a 3 point shooter left open by a collapsing defense.  That is really a league wide phenomena a predominate style of the game. 

Neither team played with the methodical sameness that Houston uses...but still it is a game that starts on the outside rather than the inside.  It IS a very different style than predominated up to the earlier part of the 2000's. 

[silentbob]

The "endless dribble penetration/kick out for an open three" strategy may be fairly new to the NBA, but for decades it's been central to how teams play internationally, both in Europe and in South America where low post play hasn't really ever been a thing.

[DaveO]

23 hours ago, silentbob said:

The "endless dribble penetration/kick out for an open three" strategy may be fairly new to the NBA, but for decades it's been central to how teams play internationally, both in Europe and in South America where low post play hasn't really ever been a thing.

That is so accurate.  Thank you for the correction/reminder.

[DaveO]

More on the three point shot and its effect on the game  (I think this deserves its own thread).

The Washington Post has an interesting article about the cartographer who has had an enormous impact on the application of basketball analytics and the changing nature of the game, Kirk Goldsberry.

Fascinating.  As an academic he switched universities, found himself with less teaching duties, more time for research and mapped tens of thousands of NBA shots.  His research opened the floodgates for the explosion of 3 point shots.   From that research he moved into sports writing and commentary and a job with the San Antonio Spurs. 

Goldsberry is a fan of the game.  He worked for the San Antonio Spurs and may well have a similar attitude, in that the excessive use of the 3 pointer has upset the balance and beauty of the game at its best.  (The 2014 Spurs beating the Lebron James led Miami team in the NBA finals was one of the most beautiful examples of team basketball and passing every seen).

Even as Goldsberry's research changed the nature of the game his continued analysis and various suggestions are a way to try and recreate balance.  This excerpt from his recently released book  provides some ideas on how to adjust the game so that the 3 pointer doesn't permanently change the sport.  Its a great read, IMHO.

[DonRocks]

My initial impression is that I'm intrigued at the thought of home teams choosing where to put their three-point line. Still, that might be a bit like moving the pitcher's mound back to 70 feet from home plate.

[DaveO]

20 hours ago, DonRocks said:

PS - My initial impression is that I'm intrigued at the thought of home teams choosing where to put their three-point line. Still, that might be a bit like moving the pitcher's mound back to 70 feet from home plate.

The idea about a home team deciding what to do with the 3 point shot was radical and a real thought provoker.  I haven't the faintest idea how that would work, but to see one team eliminate it in full,  another team move it in,  while a 3rd team would move it out would be "crazy"  I'd watch to see how that plays out.  I think it would play out dramatically more impactful than how it works in baseball which was the comparison sport. 

[DaveO]

19 hours ago, DonRocks said:

My initial impression is that I'm intrigued at the thought of home teams choosing where to put their three-point line

That part of the book and the article is extraordinary.  Man the game would change.  It would be fascinating;   The excerpt:

Quote

Custom lines

Warning: The following idea has often been ridiculed as the dumbest thing I ever proposed. However, a few people have told me it's brilliant. I present it again here, and will let you decide for yourself:

What if every team in the NBA could draw the 3-point line wherever they wanted?

Ever since the inception of the sport, basketball courts have been the same shape with equal dimensions no matter what city you played in. This consistency separates the sport from baseball and soccer, which both have different dimensions in different arenas.

When you walk into Fenway Park for the first time, you are greeted by the famed Green Monster, the left-field wall that is one of the most iconic images in baseball. Now imagine the same thing in basketball. What if different NBA teams had different dimensions on their 3-point lines?

For generations, Major League Baseball teams have accounted for park factors as they assemble their rosters. The Red Sox love right-handed power hitters who can take advantage of the Green Monster, and the Yankees love left-handed power hitters who can exploit the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium. What if basketball teams could do the reverse? What if every season each NBA team delineated its own 3-point line based on the strengths and weaknesses of its roster?

Where would Golden State put its line? What about Houston? You might think that Golden State would put their line closer in to get more 3s; however, their shooters all thrive from deep. Curry, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson all hit from 25-plus feet with relative ease. By drawing their line at, say, 26 feet, they would emphasize their skills while challenging their opponents to swim in the deep end.

Other teams might choose to move the line closer or to feature asymmetries that keep opponents off-balance.

What if a team didn't want a 3-point line at all on its home court? This might be the choice of a team with a dominant shot blocker, like Rudy Gobert of the Utah Jazz. Having no 3-point line would force opponents to beat them near the basket rather than from beyond the arc.

That would be the most drastic option. But if dispensing with the 3-point line altogether is too extreme, the league could easily institute some geometric constraints on the delineation of these lines. For example, the line would have to be no closer than 22 feet and no farther away than 30 feet at all locations, or the lines would have to be symmetrical and identical on both ends of the court.

I love that part about Utah completely eliminating the 3 point line.  That would absolutely kill Houston and fluster every other team that heavily relies on 3 pointers.  Utah would possibly go 40-1 or better at home but have a real rough time in away games. 

The above diagram on the right would also dramatically change games.  Offensive teams would no longer park 3 point shooters at the corners.  Even if offenses parked a lot of shooters behind the 3 point line defenses could better defend the shooters and the shots would be longer.  Teams would have to play inside the 3 point line and also devise ways to get shots inside the paint.  

I've enjoyed watching the Warriors offense at its best, even as it starts way outside.  The reason is they've had creative passers who can whiz that ball around and get advantageous open shots all over the court including way down low.  At its best its a fast moving offense with a heavy dose of assists.   Unfortunately few other teams have enough multi talented players and passers that can replicate that skill.

[DonRocks]

I'm watching Golden State - Houston, and it's so boring (even though it's so compelling - Kevin Durant is amazing). I still propose that someone like Tyrone Bogues might be "The Answer" to this mess, the problem being that Bogues would also have to play on offense.

[DaveO]

12 hours ago, DonRocks said:

I'm watching Golden State - Houston, and it's so boring (even though it's so compelling - Kevin Durant is amazing). I still propose that someone like Tyrone Bogues might be "The Answer" to this mess, the problem being that Bogues would also have to play on offense.

While I didn’t see the game I find Houston the least watchable team.  OTOH they compete for the best team in the league mantle.  Harden is a remarkable player.