Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

[DonRocks]

Here's an easy way to keep tabs (no pun intended) on the progress of COVID-19.

Go to the World Health Organization home page.

Click on the main article, currently labeled "Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Outbreak."

Shortcut: Click on the "Situation Report" tabs on this page. Today's report is #34, yesterday's is #33, etc. Each report will open in a new tab on your screen, and once a bunch of them are open, you can easily click-thru the tabs and compare the daily statistics (they're all in the exact same place, so you don't even need to move your eyes).

It's troubling that in Hubei (the original location), there are now over 64,000 cases, and over 2,300 deaths.

---

A very interesting article:

"Who Is Patient Zero in the Coronavirus Outbreak?" by Fernando Duarte on bbc.com

[deangold]

Italy now has the highest number of confirmed cases outside of Asia with 76. I read elsewhere that Italy was saying 150 new cases and 3 confirmed deaths. We don't need to panic but we should be very concerned. The world risk assessment is very high.

But of course our fearless leader has cut the budget at the CDC and decimated our international response capability, including firing and not replacing the coordinator for emergency pandemic response. The position was created under the Obama administration in response to the Ebola outbreak {which Kay was incredibly involved coordinating the rotation of doctor in and out of various African countries} and thus deemed not in our national interest. The funny thing about diseases is they don't care who is in charge, they just spread until the outbreak runs its course. On a pandemic that course is worldwide involvement. The fatality rate of Covid-19 appears to be 2 to 3% {currently around 3%} with around 80k cases confirmed.

Richard Engle, investigative reporter with NBC is in Hong Kong and his researches have him reporting that Chinese doctors say there is vast under-reporting of both cases and deaths. The benign reason for this is that COVID-19 looks like the flu. So many flu cases and deaths have net been tested for COVID-19 and may very well be Covid-19.

In the US, we have a handful of hospitals with the CDC approved testing in place. I read 3 but more may have come online since that article. Decisions like how to fly exposed and sick Americans home from the cruise ship were made by **Censored** administration officials and not the CDC. In fact, the CDC was adamant that it not be done in the way it is being done. So far, it has not seemed to have resulted in a major increase in cases, but we do not know enough about transmission and how the disease progresses. 

I don't know about you, but I would rather that we had a robust response team in place. Even what Obama left was not enough, but no we have rendered it almost useless. That fact scares me more then COVID-19 does right now. COVID017 is only the altest possible Pandemic and they are coming at us more and more rapidly. The Influenza of the WWI era cause between 10 and 20 million deaths and that was before the rapid travel and high densities of so much more of the earth.

From singularityhub.com 

"1917: The US population broke 100 million, and the global population reached 1.9 billion. – Today: The US population is 320 million, and the global population broke 7.5 billion this year.Feb 15, 2017"

A pandemic of the scale of the Spanish Influenza would have 4 times the deaths world wide and 3 times in the USA.

Just remember,diseases don't give an eff about your politics or thoughts and prayers. Science is our only way to prepare, fight and mitigate these outbreaks. Science is being systematically eliminated from the federal government. 

As the radio ads say

"Just a thought, not a sermon"

[ktmoomau]

My Mom and I were hoping to go to Vietnam this Spring.  We have been on the fence about what to do, given the spread of this, our backup was previously Greece, but it is likely that they will have cases spread from Italy.  At this point we have been trying to figure out if we say f*** it, everywhere is about as likely to have it here soon and go, and try to do normal preventative measures- wash hands a lot, avoid cruises, big crowds if possible.  OR what our alternative would be- if we should postpone a trip, or go somewhere different and where.  I am one of those people who doesn't like to live my life based on fear, and recognizes the flu so far is more deadly with current statistics, but I am almost more worried about how countries will react, restrictions and bans that will be put in place, as getting sick.  

It is a murky subject.   

[Count Bobulescu]

3 hours ago, deangold said:

Richard Engle, investigative reporter with NBC is in Hong Kong and his researches have him reporting that Chinese doctors say there is vast under-reporting of both cases and deaths. The benign reason for this is that COVID-19 looks like the flu. So many flu cases and deaths have net been tested for COVID-19 and may very well be Covid-19.

A BBC Persian Service reporter, being interviewed on the BBC, said her contacts in Iran are saying the situation there is much worse than official figures suggest, and that large public religious events are continuing as normal.

[DonRocks]

20 minutes ago, Count Bobulescu said:

A BBC Persian Service reporter, being interviewed on the BBC, said her contacts in Iran are saying the situation there is much worse than official figures suggest, and that large public religious events are continuing as normal.

One thing I'm keeping my eye on is "Number of New Cases" vis-a-vis "Number of New Deaths." (Today in China, for example, the New Deaths (150) are 36% of the New Cases (415).) There isn't enough information in these Situation Reports to determine how to interpret these figures - one thing that would be very useful is knowing "Number of Days between Diagnosis and Death." If it's a small number, that's a good thing; if it's a large number, that's a bad thing, but I've seen no information regarding that statistic.

One thing that worries me that it *might* be a large number is that China has had this disease the longest, and their "New Deaths to New Cases" percentage is much higher than countries who only recently acquired the virus (I'm not sure if this makes any sense to people, but it does to me).

[Ericandblueboy]

I have a trip booked for Easter with the kids to Florence and Siena.  I did not purchase insurance but everything was paid with Chase Sapphire. 

[DonRocks]

17 minutes ago, Ericandblueboy said:

I have a trip booked for Easter with the kids to Florence and Siena.  I did not purchase insurance but everything was paid with Chase Sapphire. 

Force Majeure (or not).

[Ericandblueboy]

According to a Forbes article:

Quote

Chase

The Chase Sapphire collection gets a lot of decent press for being one of the better cards for frequent travelers, but can Chase Sapphire Reserve or Chase Sapphire Preferred cardholders depend on Chase to cover them during a pandemic?

The Chase Sapphire cards come with access to great travel insurance packages that include trip cancellation and interruption insurance, baggage loss and delay insurance and primary rental car insurance. As long as travel purchases (such as tickets, hotels, rental cars, etc.) are made with the Chase credit card, insurance will automatically kick in to cover the travel period. 

Specifically, trip cancellation and interruption insurance can cover nonrefundable travel purchases up to $10,000 per person and up to $20,000 per trip if your plans are altered by severe weather, illness or other covered situations. However, your Chase insurance doesn’t necessarily kick in just because you are afraid of becoming ill; it simply covers the unavoidable effects of illness or your inability to travel because you’ve been quarantined. 

So, if you choose not to travel because of the possibility of being exposed to a viral illness, that’s on you. Chase insurance won’t cover your trip cancellation unless you are properly prevented from traveling. 

But, just as with American Express, if your physician notifies you that travel is not medically advisable and you notify your travel suppliers within 48 hours, your coverage should kick in. You’ll then need to start the claims process to get your refund.

[deangold]

2 hours ago, Count Bobulescu said:

A BBC Persian Service reporter, being interviewed on the BBC, said her contacts in Iran are saying the situation there is much worse than official figures suggest, and that large public religious events are continuing as normal.

This seems to be the case in many places. 

2 hours ago, DonRocks said:

One thing I'm keeping my eye on is "Number of New Cases" vis-a-vis "Number of New Deaths." (Today in China, for example, the New Deaths (150) are 36% of the New Cases (415).) There isn't enough information in these Situation Reports to determine how to interpret these figures - one thing that would be very useful is knowing "Number of Days between Diagnosis and Death." If it's a small number, that's a good thing; if it's a large number, that's a bad thing, but I've seen no information regarding that statistic.

One thing that worries me that it *might* be a large number is that China has had this disease the longest, and their "New Deaths to New Cases" percentage is much higher than countries who only recently acquired the virus (I'm not sure if this makes any sense to people, but it does to me).

We just don't have good numbers on this. The unreported cases and the lack of knowledge of the pattern of the spread make this more worrying. We are just at the beginning of exposure in the USA and our emergency response teams have been decimated {worse, decimation is the Roman practice of killing 1 of 10 soldiers for punishment, we have fired half our upper level infrastructure.}

[Count Bobulescu]

Several boffins have expressed the view that the window for containment has already closed.

 

This is from an Axios newsletter........

Quote

Iran has reported 12 deaths but just 66 known cases, an improbable ratio given the virus' 1–2% fatality rate, suggesting a much larger outbreak.

• A local representative in the holy city of Qom said 50 people had died there, though Tehran vehemently denied it.
• Clerics have claimed that to close Qom's shrine to pilgrims would be to give in to "a U.S. plot to undermine the religious institution," per the FT.
• Authorities blamed the virus for record-low turnout in Friday's parliamentary elections.
• The first confirmed cases in Iraq, Afghanistan, Kuwait and Bahrain were all linked back to Iran.

[astrid]

If your workplace accommodates telework, make sure you prepare to use it.  Buy some staples, rice and pastas and condensed soup and sauces.  Avoid scheduling travel if at all possible.  If you depend on meds, beg your doctor to give you an extra refill and do it now. This is the basic stuff just to handle the supply chain disruptions.  

I had hoped that we could get some warning before getting into pandemic mode.  The speed and suddenness of the outbreaks in Iran, RoK, and Italy suggests otherwise.  

---

Iran will report worse fatality numbers than most places, at least until we're in true pandemic mode like Wuhan.  About 10 to 20 percent become seriously ill and needs intensive care up to and including ventilators.  The US imposed sanctions  means Iran has extremely limited capacity for that level of care.

But the fact that it's already spreading outside of Iran means it'll get far worse.

[DonRocks]

In case anyone wonders why these types of viruses are called "corona"viruses, it's because they look like a "crown" (corona) under a microscope.

[Count Bobulescu]

Without wishing to spiral down into a conspiracy rabbit hole.....

I've seen some "speculation" on a Euro forum concerning the apparent pauses in the spread, both in Hong Kong & Singapore, plus the low incidence in India. One theory advanced is that counter-intuitively, the relatively high temperatures and high humidity in all three places might have a positive impact. Perhaps wrong, but hardly crazy.

 

Here's an article from 2009 that supports that theory. Not good news for northern latitudes, and low humidity environments.

 

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsif.2009.0227.focus#RSIF20090227TB1

 

Quote

Generally, viruses with lipid envelopes will tend to survive longer at lower (20–30%) RHs. This applies to most respiratory viruses, which are lipid enveloped, including influenza, coronaviruses (including severe acute respiratory syndrome-associated coronavirus), respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza viruses, as well as febrile rash infections caused by measles, rubella, varicella zoster virus (that causes chickenpox; Harper 1961; Schaffer et al. 1976; Ijaz et al. 1985).

[deangold]

13 hours ago, Count Bobulescu said:

Several boffins have expressed the view that the window for containment has already closed.

 

This is from an Axios newsletter........

I am never convinced when I read something in Axios, but these stats are already out if date. The WHO has yet to call it a pandemic but it is at high risk to become one. Many scientists are using the term already. If it isn't, its close.

By the way, the few remaining scientists working in infectious disease that our fearless leader has not fired all agree that closing boarders will not provide containment. I can't wait for the sharpie altered charts showing how excluding Muslims will stop it. From Alabama. 

[Count Bobulescu]

10 hours ago, deangold said:

I am never convinced when I read something in Axios, but these stats are already out if date. The WHO has yet to call it a pandemic but it is at high risk to become one. Many scientists are using the term already. If it isn't, its close.

By the way, the few remaining scientists working in infectious disease that our fearless leader has not fired all agree that closing boarders will not provide containment. I can't wait for the sharpie altered charts showing how excluding Muslims will stop it. From Alabama. 

Save to say, don't shoot the messenger, I'll let your comment on Axios slide, its an unnecessary hostage to fortune. There's a reason politicians often say "never say never".

Rush Limbaugh has claimed the virus is a plot to dethrone POTUS.

[DonRocks]

The WHO Situation Report is out for today, Tuesday.

I've included the past seven days so people can just click through them:

[zgast]

On 2/24/2020 at 4:14 PM, DonRocks said:

One thing I'm keeping my eye on is "Number of New Cases" vis-a-vis "Number of New Deaths."

...

(I'm not sure if this makes any sense to people, but it does to me).

I feel like I completely get this ratio due to my extensive experience playing Plaque, Inc. on my iPad.

[Count Bobulescu]

19 hours ago, DonRocks said:

[To try and nip this in the bud...]

 

I just thought it funny that elements in Iran are blaming the US, and elements in the US are blaming.....

Particularly so in light of Dean recently responding to your thread on War Criminals vs. American Heroes....

 

BBC showing video of Iran's deputy health minister apparently sweating profusely. He, and at least one parliamentarian later claimed to have tested positive, but cynics say it's a scam to lure the public into a false sense of security. They say the minister will disappear for a few days, then return saying no big deal. 

[Mark Slater]

18 hours ago, Count Bobulescu said:

Save to say, don't shoot the messenger, I'll let your comment on Axios slide, its an unnecessary hostage to fortune. There's a reason politicians often say "never say never".

Rush Limbaugh has claimed the virus is a plot to dethrone POTUS.

And POTUS is more worried about the virus affecting the  stock market and his re-election chances than the health of hundreds of millions of people. 

[deangold]

1 hour ago, Mark Slater said:

And POTUS is more worried about the virus affecting the  stock market and his re-election chances than the health of hundreds of millions of people. 

And secretary of HHS touting the junta's line rather than backing up the CDC's warnings. This is winning?

[Ericandblueboy]

I'm more concerned about my stock portfolio than the lives of other people.  Some of us are just wired differently.

[deangold]

Italy and South Korea both report 10 deaths each. 

Outside China, there are now 2,790 cases in 37 countries, and 44 deaths," WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said

The latest global tally includes dozens of new cases in South Korea, Italy and Iran. Each of those countries has confirmed at least 10 deaths so far from COVID-19, a mark that surpasses the death toll reported in many Chinese provinces.

Good thing we have this locked down virtually airtight. 

[ktmoomau]

5 hours ago, Ericandblueboy said:

I'm more concerned about my stock portfolio than the lives of other people.  Some of us are just wired differently.

[Count Bobulescu]

With apologies to Dean, Axios again..... A clinic in Nebraska is also testing an existing drug on on someone evacuated from the Diamond Princess.

Quote

A lab in North Carolina is working to synthesize a sample of the coronavirus from its genetic code, according to MIT Technology Review.

Why it matters: Creating a pathogen from scratch would allow researchers to rapidly experiment on it without waiting for live samples from an outbreak zone.

• But it also raises the risk that someone could eventually try to recreate a dangerous virus as a weapon.

Driving the news: Coronavirus expert Ralph Baric at the University of North Carolina took the genetic code of the pathogen, posted online last month by Chinese researchers, and ordered custom DNA.

• He will be able to stitch the genes together into a virus indistinguishable from the one that has so far infected more than 81,000 people and killed more than 2,700, MIT Tech's Antonio Regalado writes.
• "This is the future in terms of how the medical research community responds to a new threat,” Baric told Regalado.

Once they've synthesized the virus, researchers will be able to edit it as they might a document, adding and subtracting genes in an effort to understand how it spreads and sickens.

• Past disease events like the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic and the 2014 Ebola outbreak often ran their course before new countermeasures could be developed and distributed.
• Synthesizing the virus could help health officials move almost as fast as the pathogen itself.

The catch: If a virus can be synthesized from nothing more than its genetic code and mail-order DNA, it means a deadly pathogen can never really be eliminated.

• The International Gene Synthesis Consortium, a group of DNA synthesis companies that screens gene orders, prohibits its members from synthesizing the gene sequences of dangerous viruses like smallpox. Only labs registered with the CDC to work with SARS — as Baric's is — will be able to order a complete synthetic copy of the new coronavirus.
• But the consortium only represents 80% of the global DNA synthesis market.

 Synthesizing viruses from scratch still requires considerable resources and skill. But as that changes, synthetic biology will present a troubling dual-use dilemma — the same tools that could help counter an outbreak could be employed to create one.

Read more

[DonRocks]

The "unknown source" US patient lives in Solano County, CA. Without making any assumptions, it's hard not to notice that Travis Air Force Base (the largest and busiest in the United States) is there.

[Ericandblueboy]

I'm pretty sure my trip to Florence/Siena for my daughter Siena's 10th b-day will be scrapped.  The problem is that a person can be infected and began to spread the virus even before that person is symptomatic?  U.S. schools are canceling their study abroad programs so U.S. students in Florence will be coming back to the U.S.  What are the chances that some are already infected?  

[Count Bobulescu]

Will DC lock out Virginians?

Two potential cases surface in Virginia. [WAMU]

The Contessa sent me on a face mask chase. I was at least a day late and $ short. Three grocery stores, and three pharmacies, OOS, backordered, no ETA. 

This virus at 2% fatality is twenty times more lethal than the flu.

[Count Bobulescu]

Don't assume that just because I subscribe to Marginal Revolution, I'm a Libertarian.

Quote

How the coronavirus is changing the culture of science and publication by Tyler Cowen

A torrent of data is being released daily by preprint servers that didn’t even exist a decade ago, then dissected on platforms such as Slack and Twitter, and in the media, before formal peer review begins. Journal staffers are working overtime to get manuscripts reviewed, edited, and published at record speeds. The venerable New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) posted one COVID-19 paper within 48 hours of submission. Viral genomes posted on a platform named GISAID, more than 200 so far, are analyzed instantaneously by a phalanx of evolutionary biologists who share their phylogenetic trees in preprints and on social media.

“This is a very different experience from any outbreak that I’ve been a part of,” says epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. The intense communication has catalyzed an unusual level of collaboration among scientists that, combined with scientific advances, has enabled research to move faster than during any previous outbreak. “An unprecedented amount of knowledge has been generated in 6 weeks,” says Jeremy Farrar, head of the Wellcome Trust...

The COVID-19 outbreak has broken that mold. Early this week, more than 283 papers had already appeared on preprint repositories (see graphic, below), compared with 261 published in journals. Two of the largest biomedical preprint servers, bioRxiv and medRxiv, “are currently getting around 10 papers each day on some aspect of the novel coronavirus,” says John Inglis, head of Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press, which runs both servers. The deluge “has been a challenge for our small teams … [they] are working evenings and weekends.”

Here is the full story, via Michael Nielsen.

[DonRocks]

8 minutes ago, Count Bobulescu said:

Don't assume that just because I subscribe to Marginal Revolution, I'm a Libertarian.

[Nobody here cares about your politics. ]

The coronavirus is incidental; the internet is what has changed everything.

[hopsing]

I'm feeling bad for all the local Chinese restaurants losing business because of the coronavirus.  I did carryout last week and will go for Peking duck this weekend.  I have to show support for my peeps.

[zgast]

6 hours ago, Count Bobulescu said:

Will DC lock out Virginians?

Two potential cases surface in Virginia. [WAMU]

The Contessa sent me on a face mask chase. I was at least a day late and $ short. Three grocery stores, and three pharmacies, OOS, backordered, no ETA. 

This virus at 2% fatality is twenty times more lethal than the flu.

We tried to order face masks for our Hong Kong employees in January - there were no supplies online. I think you missed by more than a day.

[Bart]

Regarding masks, here's a clip from a Post article today:

<<<<<<<

And those surgical masks? If you’re not sick, you don’t need to wear them — and you certainly don’t need to buy every box your local pharmacy has in stock.

“The main point of the mask is to keep someone who is infected with the virus from spreading it to others,” Brewer said.

The CDC agrees, writing on its website: “CDC does not recommend that people who are well wear a facemask to protect themselves from respiratory diseases.”

Common surgical masks block the droplets coming out of a sick person from getting into the air, but they are not tight enough to prevent what’s already in the air from getting in.

There are specialized masks — known as N95 masks because they filter out 95 percent of airborne particles — that are more effective, and some online retailers are sold out of them. But there’s a problem: The masks are difficult to use without training. They must be fitted and tested to work properly.

“If you just buy them at CVS, you’re not going to do all that,” Brewer said. “You’re not going to get it fit-tested, and you’re not going to be wearing it properly, so all you’ve done is spend a lot of money on a very fancy face mask.”

>>>>>>>>

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/02/26/how-to-prepare-for-coronavirus

[deangold]

On 2/26 WHO is reporting a leveling off of new cases in China, especially outside of Hubei. But Richard Engle of NBC is in Hong Kong and he is reporting that medical folk are telling him of spread to Beijing and that many more new cases than are confirmed/suspected by official sources. Somehow I would trust Engle over the Chinese Government at this point. 

In US, after L Kudlow said it is virtually locked down and POTUS reported 15 cases, the confirmed cases on 2/26, the day of POTUS's press conference, the WHO has 53 confirmed cases. 

The WHO director General said that the following countries ahve not had new cases in 2 weeks. The number I give is the number of confirmed cases for those countries:

Belgium (1)
Sweden {1}
Finland {1}
Cambodia {1}
India {3}
Nepal {1}
Philippines {3}
the Russian Federation {2}
Sri Lanka {1}

The lack of spread in countries with such low totals is good new but hardly evidence of the infection peaking. The US has relatively few new cases but we know that testing is almost non existent. 450 or so tests had been given by the 26.

Last: An analysis of fearless leader's press conference fantasies

[weezy]

My sister teaches in Falls Church City.  She said there was a meeting yesterday where the teachers were told to prepare lesson plans for 20 days (a full month) in case of a shutdown.

[lion]

I have not checked the CDC website but read that they have stopped reporting numbers of cases geographically. In case people are wondering where outbreaks are occurring, John Hopkins is continuously updating their GIS database.

Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by John Hopkins CSSE

[Bob Wells]

1 hour ago, lion said:

I have not checked the CDC website but read that they have stopped reporting numbers of cases geographically. In case people are wondering where outbreaks are occurring, John Hopkins is continuously updating their GIS database.

Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by John Hopkins CSSE

That would be Johns Hopkins. 🙂

[deangold]

1 hour ago, lion said:

I have not checked the CDC website but read that they have stopped reporting numbers of cases geographically. In case people are wondering where outbreaks are occurring, John Hopkins is continuously updating their GIS database.

Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by John Hopkins CSSE

This is the website that unconstitutional cooch could not figure out. 

[lion]

4 hours ago, deangold said:

This is the website that unconstitutional cooch could not figure out. 

The link above is for the desktop version. 

Here is the mobile link which doesn't show the map just lists current statistics and then subdivides the information into tabs which may be easier to see. Depending upon your cellphone model and browser you may have to rotate to landscape to see the tabs at the bottom of the page. 

Mobile link

[Pat]

I've been following BNO newsroom, based in the Netherlands.

[Count Bobulescu]

I came across the first table below, on a Euro forum, and was prompted to seek out the comparable US number, 2nd table. As one who grew up under an EU healthcare system, I'm often bemused when I hear Americans call for EU style systems, particularly the UK. Kinda like, the truth, but not the whole truth.

While much is "free" a lot is also rationed, see bed numbers below.

Saw a claim that 10% of doctors in Lombardy (Milan) are infected. Why so bad in Italy compared to Germany? Explanation I heard by WHO doc on NPR now makes more sense. Comparisons with flu only go so far. Spread follows a different path.

The variability of critical care bed numbers in Europe

 

Numbers of critical care beds corrected for size of population (per 100,000 inhabitants) for European countries

 

Table 1.

U.S. Hospitals, Hospital Beds, ICU Beds, and Population between 2000 and 2009

	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Hospitals	3,468	3,424	3,363	3,323	3,334	3,280	3,247	3,222	3,199	3,155
Hospital beds	621,578	616,679	616,454	615,468	619,395	618,743	619,894	623,775	627,378	627,112
ICU beds	67,579	67,710	68,920	70,258	71,468	72,678	74,533	75,863	76,803	77,809
ICU bed proportion	0.109	0.110	0.112	0.114	0.115	0.117	0.120	0.122	0.122	0.124
Population 20+	200.9M	203.8M	206.9M	209.5M	212.2M	214.9M	217.6M	219.9M	222.3M	224.3M
Population 65+	35.0M	35.3M	35.9M	36.4M	36.9M	37.5M	38.3M	39.1M	40.2M	41.1M
Hospital beds per 100K
Population 20+	309.4	302.6	298.0	293.8	291.9	287.9	284.9	283.7	282.2	279.6
Population 65+	1,776.6	1,745.9	1,718.0	1,692.7	1,678.4	1,649.9	1,620.3	1,594.1	1,561.8	1,526.5
ICU beds per 100K
Population 20+	33.6	33.2	33.3	33.5	33.7	33.8	34.3	34.5	34.5	34.7
Population 65+	193.2	191.7	192.1	193.2	193.7	193.8	194.8	193.9	191.2	189.4

Definition of abbreviations: ICU = intensive care unit; K = thousand; M = million.

Region level ICU beds and ICU beds per 100,000 capita varied widely in all study years (157.5- to 419.7-fold for ICU beds; 6.6- to 32.0-fold range for ICU beds per 100,000 adults; and 6.5- to 18.4-fold range for ICU beds per 100,000 elderly adults) (Figures 1A–1C).

[Count Bobulescu]

 

The table is from Worldometer......

Notice, that in the last 24 hours Italy has reported more new cases than the US has in total.......

Will we be Italy or India with 62 cases and zero deaths?

Confirmed Cases and Deaths by Country, Territory, or Conveyance

The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 119 countries and territories around the world and 1 international conveyance (the Diamond Princess cruise ship harbored in Yokohama, Japan). The day is reset after midnight GMT+0.

Search:

 

Country, Other	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Total Recovered	Active Cases	Serious, Critical	Tot Cases/ 1M pop
China	80,777	+23	3,158	+22	61,481	16,138	4,794	56.1
Italy	10,149	+977	631	+168	1,004	8,514	877	167.9
Iran	8,042	+881	291	+54	2,731	5,020		95.7
S. Korea	7,513	+35	58	+5	247	7,208	54	146.5
France	1,784	+372	33	+3	12	1,739	86	27.3
Spain	1,695	+464	36	+6	135	1,524	101	36.3
Germany	1,565	+341	2		18	1,545	9	18.7
USA	975	+271	30	+4	15	930	8	2.9
Diamond Princess	696		7		245	444	32

[ktmoomau]

I assume the death counts have a lot to do with the average population age, as well as, care available? 

[Count Bobulescu]

5 hours ago, ktmoomau said:

I assume the death counts have a lot to do with the average population age, as well as, care available? 

Not so much average population age, more that the elderly are much more vulnerable. 90%+ of Italian fatalities have been elderly, 75+. More effort is being put into saving the young. Care available, less clear. Healthcare in Northern Italy is fairly robust, but there are warnings that the system is on the verge of collapse. 12% of infected are medical staff.

White House considering travel restrictions/warnings for all of Europe.

Merkel says up to 60% of Germans at risk of infection.

Congressional physician tells Chiefs of Staff that 70-150M Americans at risk of infection.

Fatality rate still unclear, but many multiples of flu.......10 to 30 times.

[Count Bobulescu]

In Italy, all stores except food and pharmacy to remain closed until March 26. 

[Count Bobulescu]

The idea that Tom Hanks and wife are two of the just 156 people in OZ who have the virus, strikes me as implausible. Suspect the real OZ numbers are much higher. The current OZ PM is cut from similar cloth as he who shall not be named.

 

Getting harder to make sense of the reported numbers. 

Currently for the US on March 11, WHO is reporting 696 total cases, CDC 938, and Worldometer 1,364.  Plan for worst, hope for best.

 

Apparently, CDC is reporting that on March 11, eight tests for Coronavirus were conducted in the US. That also seems had to believe.

Edited March 12, 2020 by Count Bobulescu
add extra info

[astrid]

The US is just 7-10 days behind Italy, and it will be much worse here than Italy or Wuhan, unless warm weather saves us.  The lack of government preparation and seriousness is stunning.  That flight ban to Europe will protect them from us, not the other way around.  Even with warm weather, we are likely looking at quarantine in southern hemisphere this summer and return this fall.  Nevermind deaths and health, we have a hugely fragile global economy that won't survive this the way that 1918-1919 societies did.

Honestly, I'm a little shocked that you people are still talking about eating at restaurants and going to large gatherings.   Even after all the evidence of exactly how bad it's going to be came out, it seems most Americans think it's not going to affect them.  

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

[Bob Wells]

Loudoun County Public Schools are closed through next Friday. Shit gettin' real, yo.

[Count Bobulescu]

Broadway shutting down, Ohio closing all schools for three weeks.

[Ericandblueboy]

All of our offices in the U.S. and Europe are closing starting tomorrow.  

[Count Bobulescu]

China to send aid to Italy......... Corriere Della Sera