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DonRocks

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DC's number of new cases today is 48. The youngest is an 8-week-old male. In previous reports I've seen of women giving birth with COVID-19, the babies were born negative. It seems hard to imagine a child less than 2 months old contracting this on his own rather than in utero, though IANAD.

Most of today's cases were people in their 30s (14) and 40s (15), oldest case 75m.

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"Le hasard est un sobriquet de la Providence." (*)
-- Nicolas Chamfort

(*) "Chance is a nickname for Providence." (**)

(**) Which is pretty ironic considering Chamfort's death. From Wikipedia: "Unable to tolerate the prospect of being imprisoned once more, in September 1793 he locked himself into his office and shot himself in the face. The pistol malfunctioned and he did not die even though he shot off his nose and part of his jaw. He then repeatedly stabbed his neck with a paper cutter, but failed to cut an artery. He finally used the paper cutter to stab himself in the chest."

He lived an entire year after this.

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Get out your violins and handkerchiefs.  I've been told that I'm taking a pay cut for April, May and June.  Given that I can't eat out or travel, I should be able to survive; however, I might start a Gofundme page just in case.  I do feel bad for my daughter Siena - instead of going to Siena for her 10th birthday (would've been her first trip out of North America), she's gonna get stuck with me building Lego and eating take-out.  Oh fudge.

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1 hour ago, Ericandblueboy said:

Get out your violins and handkerchiefs.  I've been told that I'm taking a pay cut for April, May and June.  Given that I can't eat out or travel, I should be able to survive; however, I might start a Gofundme page just in case.  I do feel bad for my daughter Siena - instead of going to Siena for her 10th birthday (would've been her first trip out of North America), she's gonna get stuck with me building Lego and eating take-out.  Oh fudge.

I get the feeling you'll be okay, Eric. If you're taking a pay "cut" instead of a pay "elimination," you're better-off than most. And Siena, well, she'll appreciate Italy more when she's 11 or 12 (is this Boo Boo?) I suspect she'd prefer building Lego than walking around Roman ruins saying, "Daddy, can we go home and build a Lego?" Build the number "10" with the blocks, have her dress up like a princess, and make a big deal out of taking pictures.

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In theory, "physical" is a better term, but people are dealing with so much right now, trying to get them to change a basic term they've just learned and integrated into their lives seems counterproductive and wasteful of energy.

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13 hours ago, Ericandblueboy said:

Get out your violins and handkerchiefs.  I've been told that I'm taking a pay cut for April, May and June.  Given that I can't eat out or travel, I should be able to survive; however, I might start a Gofundme page just in case.  I do feel bad for my daughter Siena - instead of going to Siena for her 10th birthday (would've been her first trip out of North America), she's gonna get stuck with me building Lego and eating take-out.  Oh fudge.

I think this calls for the Lego Architecture collection- I would suggest: https://www.amazon.com/LEGO-Architecture-Venice-Skyline-Building/dp/B017B19CX6

Or maybe the non-lego mini blocks of the Leaning Tower or Colosseum!

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I am dealing with clients who can't physically separate, and who already wanted a divorce, and now having to be home with the spouse they are supposed to be separated with is causing really big problems, a few have been quarantined due to their spouses having exposure at work sites, and this is squeezing already tight finances so I am not sure what this means for their future.  I am so grateful there hasn't been any physical violence in any of my cases, but my heart is just going out to my clients and their kids right now.  

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Harvard scientists are suggesting we may be in for periods of intermittent social distancing until 2022, or until a vaccine is found. They arrive at the number of 3.75 per 1,000 people as the point at which social distancing needs to be implemented, in order to keep the number needing critical care manageable.That's a lot (10x) higher than we're currently experiencing in the DMV. NY state is currently at around 2.5 per 1,000.  Maybe we'll need a thread for life after......
 
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7 minutes ago, Count Bobulescu said:
Harvard scientists are suggesting we may be in for periods of intermittent social distancing until 2022, or until a vaccine is found.

Recall the graph on page 3 of this thread about the 1918 flu, which came in three waves. That's why I'm guessing (without any specific knowledge) that after this first wave dies down, scientists will first take a long nap, maybe enjoy a weekend at the beach, and then begin frantically working on finding a vaccine over the summer.

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I've been watching a worldometer fatality number gradually creep up. It's in the closed cases box at the top of the page.
It's an aggregate global number. There are two subcategories, recovered and deceased. Over the last three weeks or so, deceased as a % of closed has increased from 15 to 20-21%. Not sure what to make of it, except that it doesn't look good. Deceased increasing at a faster rate than recovered. Hopefully that will reverse after the apex.
 
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Deceased is a trailing indicator. Lancet has a study giving 25 days at the median time from infection to death. From infection to seeking medical care is more like 10 days, don't really recall exactly. But the point is, deaths trail cases by someting on the order of 15 days. FWIW. 

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2 hours ago, deangold said:

Deceased is a trailing indicator. Lancet has a study giving 25 days at the median time from infection to death. From infection to seeking medical care is more like 10 days, don't really recall exactly. But the point is, deaths trail cases by someting on the order of 15 days. FWIW. 

Understood, but recovery is also a lagging indicator 2-6 weeks. That's what confuses me.

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1 hour ago, Count Bobulescu said:

Understood, but recovery is also a lagging indicator 2-6 weeks. That's what confuses me.

It seems that "recovery" is an official term, and that it would be "more lagging" of an indicator than "deceased" (COVID-19 ends you faster than you end it). Plenty of people are sick and aren't diagnosed, so unless they die (in which case they'd surely be a "deceased" statistic even if they'd been lying around undiagnosed at home), they'd be a false negative, i.e., these statistics are biased towards a higher deceased percentage than reality would reflect.

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Until there is almost universal testing, we probably won't have a good number of recovered b/c folks who have very mild cases during this crisis time aren't being tested and likely won't end up in the recovery numbers.  Once there are enough tests that the majority of people have been tested for antibodies, then those numbers will begin to reflect reality.  In the meantime, you just have to make guesstimates.

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On 7/7/2020 at 11:35 PM, DonRocks said:

Can someone point us to a good, consistent, reliable graph on the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths daily in the United States?

This is the best state by state breakout of daily new cases I've seen.  It's what comes up if you google 'coronavirus map'.   

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To all those considering matricide: If you've been wanting to off your elderly mother to collect her inheritance, but are worried about life in prison, you now have a plan. Just send junior off to school this fall, and then make sure he spends weekends at dear old grandma's.

hug.jpeg

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1 hour ago, dcs said:

Lots of Restaurants Opened This Summer, but the Pandemic’s Real Damage Is Yet to Come, by Jessica Sidman, August 28, 2020, on washingtonian.com.

I'll take it a step further than that - we came out of the last recession too quickly, and were living on borrowed time to begin with. There's no way that either real estate or equities should have recovered so quickly after the Great Recession - and it's only getting worse as time goes by and the national debt grows and grows. It may take another hundred years for this country to collapse, but it will, because everything is built on debt (of course, by that time, the vultures will have taken their money, fled, died, and passed it down to their great-grandchildren).

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Have you been noticing the graphs on the front page of the Post online edition of states with the highest rates?  North Dakota has been going steeply up since July 4, but for the past couple of weeks it was rising thru the high 40s- 50s cases per 100k population, but 4 days ago it was 56, 3 days ago 58, 2 days ago 60, this morning 66.  I know it's not a very populous state, but I wonder why we aren't hearing anything about such a rural, spread-out state having such an exploding rate of spread.  

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I recently had my annual physical at Inova 360.  And I asked the examining physician if it's safe to eat indoors.  He says it's not safe even when the tables are 6 feet apart.  Transmission indoors has occurred at 35 feet.  The problem is that multiple parties will have their faces uncovered at the same time.  

Here's a Wapo article about transmission at an indoor spin class in Canada where they were properly distanced.

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