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Ideally we would have mass testing so we could concentrate the quarantine/distancing to those needing it. But it still would be a major effort. The city in Italy that tested everyone had amazing results. 

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4 hours ago, Ericandblueboy said:

I get the sinking feeling that lock-down/self-quarantine is just delaying the inevitable but in the process it will destroy the global economy.  Some younger people are calling it boomer remover, but in reality the pandemic will screw the old and the young.  Some of the elderly will die, and the young will be saddled with repaying the stimulus package and job losses.  

ETA: When this crisis is over (whenever they come up with a vaccine), we can assess the damage done.  I'm not sure the current delay tactics truly is the best course of action.

Although I haven't said so, I've been thinking the same thing.

Seeing as though we now have a "wartime President" - in wars, we have "acceptable collateral damage." 

Without being unfeeling or uncaring, allow me to at least ask: Is it really worth it to disrupt the entire nation's way of life for four months, as opposed to having, perhaps, 10,000 deaths?

Society has currently determined that it is, and I won't argue otherwise, but I have no problem putting the issue out for discussion.

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8 hours ago, DonRocks said:

Although I haven't said so, I've been thinking the same thing.

Seeing as though we now have a "wartime President" - in wars, we have "acceptable collateral damage." 

Without being unfeeling or uncaring, allow me to at least ask: Is it really worth it to disrupt the entire nation's way of life for four months, as opposed to having, perhaps, 10,000 deaths?

Society has currently determined that it is, and I won't argue otherwise, but I have no problem putting the issue out for discussion.

Quarantine for months should not be necessary - we really need to ramp up the testing capability, though. That's what has allowed China, Singapore and other countries to flatten the curve. Identify cases and ringfence them aggressively. That buys time to work towards a vaccine.

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12 hours ago, DonRocks said:

Without being unfeeling or uncaring, allow me to at least ask: Is it really worth it to disrupt the entire nation's way of life for four months, as opposed to having, perhaps, 10,000 deaths?

This article mentions 2.2 million

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3 hours ago, Rhone1998 said:

That is a very high number - this article mentions 1.1 million in a worst-case scenario, but that's still a very high number: 1.1-million people is as many U.S. citizens as have died in *every single war this country has ever fought*, from the Revolutionary War to the Global War on Terror (citation pbs.org).

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On 3/19/2020 at 2:31 PM, DonRocks said:

That is a very high number - this article mentions 1.1 million in a worst-case scenario, but that's still a very high number: 1.1-million people is as many U.S. citizens as have died in *every single war this country has ever fought*, from the Revolutionary War to the Global War on Terror (citation pbs.org).

I would take the Imperial College number very seriously. I think that this is a worst case scenario of no response which is not where we are. But our medical capacity is horrendously poor right now. We have not ordered out the military to set up isolation wards, mobile hospitals like it says in the medical emergency plan. Tesla says he can manufacture respirators & ventilators, but dr POTUS is not ordering the production of masks, ventilators. In 6 months time we could have a seriously ramped up supply if the government orders them. Most states cannot run deficits, so the feds have to do it.

The 1.1 million from the Post is not even given a cite. That number is .34% of the population. Let's say we have 0.5% mortality. That translates to 22 million infected or less than 10%. Right now our Mortality rate is low but our growth rate is very high. Other countries have had big moves in mortality as time goes by. I think 1.1 million is quite possibly where we end up with our current response. 

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On 3/19/2020 at 8:29 PM, deangold said:

I would take the Imperial College number very seriously.

I'm not sure I understood the connection correctly, but I believe that was also the study that caused Boris Johnson and his advisors to change course from their approach -- only the most high risk staying out of circulation and just letting the virus move through the population unfettered, with the expectation there would be herd immunity at some point. The projected number of deaths for the much-smaller UK was so very high it jolted them into realizing they couldn't continue with their approach, so that government sure took it seriously. (Am I correct on this apparent cause-effect?)

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14 hours ago, Pat said:

(Am I correct on this apparent cause-effect?)

Spot on. The Imperial college numbers also line up with the guy from Harvard School of Epidemiology.

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[...]

Yeah, you are using this forum for wish fulfillment on something that's already closed in a way that you didn't like.  I am paying attention to what politicians and public officials of all strips are actually doing right now.  But after I call out uncomfortable facts, you're shutting me down with the typical "opinions may differ" and "how dare you use this sacred forum to disagree with me" tactics that have become part for course for inside the Beltway "opinion leaders," even if it's just just a thread on a foodie blog by two people with zero formal medical or public policy training.

Frontline health workers are being sent in without PPE, now, in US hospitals.  They're told to use scarves for protection. Even in Wuhan, they only ran low on PPEs for a very short period.  In the US, it looks like supplies are what's on hospital storerooms right now for the foreseeable future. 

Meanwhile, early this week, Joe Biden and Tom Perez still wanted people to go vote.  Even Bernie wasn't good, he should have publicly called for a delay and vote by mail, and affirmatively told his supporters to stay home.  I don't see Congressional Democrats pushing for job guarantee or UBI, rent/mortgage holidays as in Italy or France, nationalization of any companies receiving bailout, or free healthcare at point of service.  What I do hear are means testing, maybe no stock buybacks next year please, and keep voting for someone that DNC has pulled every dirty trick imaginable to coronate...and MSM had done everything possible to hide his severe mental deteriorating from the public. 

And while helping little people is moral hazard and be unaffordable, nothing is said about the trillions in lending facilities to prop up Wall Street.  Nothing is said about the fact that nobody needs billions to live and most of the values liberated by these billionaires are from making people's lives worse, financial engineering, monopolistic rentier arrangements, and destroying the holding capacity of the Earth.  Nothing is said about what the hell is US doing in Iraq, where the government explicitly want Americans out, or hundreds of other places where American military presence is not wanted by locals.

So I can care less that others "disagree" with me.  I am just stating facts as I see them, unlike your numerous unsupported and highly inflammatory dreamcasting opinion posts.  And the last 3 months have been wonderfully, wonderfully clarifying for me and a lot of under 40s. Boomers gonna Boomer, you can't even keep your own vow for half a day.

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Did you hear the one about a group of people with a free membership walking into their club and shitting all over the floor?

"Janitor!"

<I peer up from behind my computer screen.>

"Clean this up."

So I did, as well as I could. So much time went into writing the previous post that I stripped the addressee information, and will leave it up for a few hours.

No more soup for you!

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Here's a free FT piece on the Imperial College Study referenced above. 

UK Covid 19 Response

---

First a bad news, then a good news story from OZ.
I noted up thread that the current OZ PM is not generally a fan of science or any restrictions etc. 
Sydney Morning Herald

Thirty-five people linked to a wedding south of Sydney have tested positive for coronavirus, as wedding industry vendors become increasingly anxious about being exposed the the virus.

Good news....Scroll down to the story on Melbourne

---

In addition to the sites Dean mentioned above, here are two more.

These people use data primarily provided by the European CDC 

ourworldindata

A seventeen year old in Seattle Avi Schiffman (sp ?) is getting a lot of attention for this. Simple & easy.

https://ncov2019.live/data

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From the WHO situation reports:

I check the WHO situation reports daily. There are great weaknesses in their data and it is usually a day or more behind Worldometer or Johns Hopkins data. But it is easy to track changes because they make all past reports available.

China had 116 new cases in their situation report 61. {this number disagrees with Worldometer}

In report 60 it was 126

In report 59 it was 58

In report 58 it was 39

From South Korea

61: 147 {this number disagrees with Worldometer}

60: 239

59: 93

58: 84

These have to be disturbing trends that need exploration. Again, they do not match Worldometer's numbers.

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Gene of Audioholics has posted a couple more videos to follow-up getting a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19. We shared it with some family members since he carefully explains how he has tried to stop from developing pneumonia. 

Living Coronavirus

Dealing with Retest, Isolation & Recovery

How I'm managing my COVID-19 symptoms

Even though this is a website that focuses on great restaurants and cooking, the danger is real. Be safe people!

 

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12 hours ago, deangold said:

From the WHO situation reports:

I check the WHO situation reports daily. There are great weaknesses in their data and it is usually a day or more behind Worldometer or Johns Hopkins data. But it is easy to track changes because they make all past reports available.

China had 116 new cases in their situation report 61. {this number disagrees with Worldometer}

In report 60 it was 126

In report 59 it was 58

In report 58 it was 39

From South Korea

61: 147 {this number disagrees with Worldometer}

60: 239

59: 93

58: 84

These have to be disturbing trends that need exploration. Again, they do not match Worldometer's numbers.

Report 62:

Korea:   98

China:     82

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The cases in the District seem to be skewing pretty young to me, with quite a few cases of people in their 20s and 30s and not so many in the 60+ range. Given that testing is not widespread these patients must be fairly sick to be tested, unless they are being tested as contacts of other cases.

What I have been paying particular attention to is the number of children infected. Since the first confirmed case of a child was announced on March 19, there have been 5 preteens and 1 young teen [8m, 9f, 11f, 8f, 10m, 13m].

I haven't checked for the number of cases of children in other US cities, but given the size of the District and lack of widespread testing, this seems somehow noteworthy.

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1 hour ago, Pat said:

The cases in the District seem to be skewing pretty young to me, with quite a few cases of people in their 20s and 30s and not so many in the 60+ range.

 
Photos from the Cherry Blossoms over the weekend suggest a significant number of people not practicing social distancing. 
If we get to lock down status, pet owners can take heart. In Spain they've been pimping out their dogs for multiple walks a day at $30 a go.
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On 3/22/2020 at 11:47 AM, deangold said:

From the WHO situation reports:

I check the WHO situation reports daily. There are great weaknesses in their data and it is usually a day or more behind Worldometer or Johns Hopkins data. But it is easy to track changes because they make all past reports available.

China had 116 new cases in their situation report 61. {this number disagrees with Worldometer}

In report 60 it was 126

In report 59 it was 58

In report 58 it was 39

From South Korea

61: 147 {this number disagrees with Worldometer}

60: 239

59: 93

58: 84

These have to be disturbing trends that need exploration. Again, they do not match Worldometer's numbers.

Paging Dean.............

COVID-19 deaths and cases: how do sources compare?


There are thre big global datasets on COVID19: the World Health Organization, Johns Hopkins University, and the European CDC

We brought the data from all 3 together to allow you to compare the data – globally and for every country in the world.

We also explain why we stopped using WHO data.
 
 

 

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The only reason I used WHO was there is an easily available time line. I have found the charts from Worldometer on daily deaths and you can create a daily chart by hovering your pointer over the graph, which isn't ideal. One nice feature on Worldometer is they have charts available in normal view or in logarithmic view. The log charts allow you to see the growth rate change. 

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NY state with 25K cases, although not as densely populated as Italy, is now at comparable per capita infection rates of 105/100K, and considered 12 days behind, so more likely to end up worse than Italy..

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Today the US rate of growth of mortality hit 40% 

It took 31 days to hit 109

It took 2 days to hit 207

2 days to hit 302

1 day to hit 413

1 more day it was 553

Today it is 775.

Today New York is at 114. Where will it be in 7 days? About 800 if this kind of growth occurs. 

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Italy has had mortality rates increasing exponentially but at a slowing rate from Feb 26 until yesterday. It's mortality increased from 12 to 6077. That is in less than a month. Today it's growth rate jumped back up and now they have 6820.

Source https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

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46 new cases announced in DC today, more than twice what it was each of the last few days. No children. Largest age group people in their 20s (14), then people in their 30s (12). The other 20 were divided among the other age groups, the oldest a 75-year-old female.

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I saw on David Chang's instagram that Floyd Cardoz died of Covid 19.  I am so sad for his family and friends.  I just watched that episode of Ugly Delicious, and I wish I had gotten to eat his food, he looked like a really cool person. Stay safe.

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15 minutes ago, ktmoomau said:

I saw on David Chang's instagram that Floyd Cardoz died of Covid 19.  I am so sad for his family and friends.  I just watched that episode of Ugly Delicious, and I wish I had gotten to eat his food, he looked like a really cool person. Stay safe.

I heard on Mar 6 that Gray Kunz passed away (but *not* from COVID-19).

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