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Prince Charles is isolating at Balmoral with Covid-19
Prince Andrew is isolating at Windsor with Jennifer-17
 
15 minute finger prick home test kits to be widely available in the UK this week. First to those with symptoms, later to the broader public.
 
 
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Tuesday evening the UK government asked for 250,000 volunteers to assist the NHS, hoping to achieve target in a few days.
24 hours later they had 405,000.
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DC's number of new cases today is 48. The youngest is an 8-week-old male. In previous reports I've seen of women giving birth with COVID-19, the babies were born negative. It seems hard to imagine a child less than 2 months old contracting this on his own rather than in utero, though IANAD.

Most of today's cases were people in their 30s (14) and 40s (15), oldest case 75m.

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Politico had a story yesterday that the current administration ignored a 69 page "playbook" completed in 2016 by the NSC, designed to provide a roadmap for dealing with public health emergencies and pandemics.
 
 
IBM's new county-by-county database.

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"Le hasard est un sobriquet de la Providence." (*)
-- Nicolas Chamfort

(*) "Chance is a nickname for Providence." (**)

(**) Which is pretty ironic considering Chamfort's death. From Wikipedia: "Unable to tolerate the prospect of being imprisoned once more, in September 1793 he locked himself into his office and shot himself in the face. The pistol malfunctioned and he did not die even though he shot off his nose and part of his jaw. He then repeatedly stabbed his neck with a paper cutter, but failed to cut an artery. He finally used the paper cutter to stab himself in the chest."

He lived an entire year after this.

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Get out your violins and handkerchiefs.  I've been told that I'm taking a pay cut for April, May and June.  Given that I can't eat out or travel, I should be able to survive; however, I might start a Gofundme page just in case.  I do feel bad for my daughter Siena - instead of going to Siena for her 10th birthday (would've been her first trip out of North America), she's gonna get stuck with me building Lego and eating take-out.  Oh fudge.

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1 hour ago, Ericandblueboy said:

Get out your violins and handkerchiefs.  I've been told that I'm taking a pay cut for April, May and June.  Given that I can't eat out or travel, I should be able to survive; however, I might start a Gofundme page just in case.  I do feel bad for my daughter Siena - instead of going to Siena for her 10th birthday (would've been her first trip out of North America), she's gonna get stuck with me building Lego and eating take-out.  Oh fudge.

I get the feeling you'll be okay, Eric. If you're taking a pay "cut" instead of a pay "elimination," you're better-off than most. And Siena, well, she'll appreciate Italy more when she's 11 or 12 (is this Boo Boo?) I suspect she'd prefer building Lego than walking around Roman ruins saying, "Daddy, can we go home and build a Lego?" Build the number "10" with the blocks, have her dress up like a princess, and make a big deal out of taking pictures.

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2 minutes ago, DonRocks said:

I get the feeling you'll be okay, Eric. If you're taking a pay "cut" instead of a pay "elimination," you're better-off than most. And Siena, well, she'll appreciate Italy more when she's 11 or 12 (is this Boo Boo?)

Siena is Boo Boo.  

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In theory, "physical" is a better term, but people are dealing with so much right now, trying to get them to change a basic term they've just learned and integrated into their lives seems counterproductive and wasteful of energy.

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13 hours ago, Ericandblueboy said:

Get out your violins and handkerchiefs.  I've been told that I'm taking a pay cut for April, May and June.  Given that I can't eat out or travel, I should be able to survive; however, I might start a Gofundme page just in case.  I do feel bad for my daughter Siena - instead of going to Siena for her 10th birthday (would've been her first trip out of North America), she's gonna get stuck with me building Lego and eating take-out.  Oh fudge.

I think this calls for the Lego Architecture collection- I would suggest: https://www.amazon.com/LEGO-Architecture-Venice-Skyline-Building/dp/B017B19CX6

Or maybe the non-lego mini blocks of the Leaning Tower or Colosseum!

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I am dealing with clients who can't physically separate, and who already wanted a divorce, and now having to be home with the spouse they are supposed to be separated with is causing really big problems, a few have been quarantined due to their spouses having exposure at work sites, and this is squeezing already tight finances so I am not sure what this means for their future.  I am so grateful there hasn't been any physical violence in any of my cases, but my heart is just going out to my clients and their kids right now.  

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Harvard scientists are suggesting we may be in for periods of intermittent social distancing until 2022, or until a vaccine is found. They arrive at the number of 3.75 per 1,000 people as the point at which social distancing needs to be implemented, in order to keep the number needing critical care manageable.That's a lot (10x) higher than we're currently experiencing in the DMV. NY state is currently at around 2.5 per 1,000.  Maybe we'll need a thread for life after......
 

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7 minutes ago, Count Bobulescu said:
Harvard scientists are suggesting we may be in for periods of intermittent social distancing until 2022, or until a vaccine is found.

Recall the graph on page 3 of this thread about the 1918 flu, which came in three waves. That's why I'm guessing (without any specific knowledge) that after this first wave dies down, scientists will first take a long nap, maybe enjoy a weekend at the beach, and then begin frantically working on finding a vaccine over the summer.

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Has anyone noticed the birds are chirping louder and with more zeal? I absolutely have.

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I've been watching a worldometer fatality number gradually creep up. It's in the closed cases box at the top of the page.
It's an aggregate global number. There are two subcategories, recovered and deceased. Over the last three weeks or so, deceased as a % of closed has increased from 15 to 20-21%. Not sure what to make of it, except that it doesn't look good. Deceased increasing at a faster rate than recovered. Hopefully that will reverse after the apex.
 

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Deceased is a trailing indicator. Lancet has a study giving 25 days at the median time from infection to death. From infection to seeking medical care is more like 10 days, don't really recall exactly. But the point is, deaths trail cases by someting on the order of 15 days. FWIW. 

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2 hours ago, deangold said:

Deceased is a trailing indicator. Lancet has a study giving 25 days at the median time from infection to death. From infection to seeking medical care is more like 10 days, don't really recall exactly. But the point is, deaths trail cases by someting on the order of 15 days. FWIW. 

Understood, but recovery is also a lagging indicator 2-6 weeks. That's what confuses me.

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True. 

I read recently that one of the issues with COVID hospitalizations, and especially intubations, is some patients stop getting worse but don't get better and recover fully. Don't know if that is part of it. 

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1 hour ago, Count Bobulescu said:

Understood, but recovery is also a lagging indicator 2-6 weeks. That's what confuses me.

It seems that "recovery" is an official term, and that it would be "more lagging" of an indicator than "deceased" (COVID-19 ends you faster than you end it). Plenty of people are sick and aren't diagnosed, so unless they die (in which case they'd surely be a "deceased" statistic even if they'd been lying around undiagnosed at home), they'd be a false negative, i.e., these statistics are biased towards a higher deceased percentage than reality would reflect.

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Until there is almost universal testing, we probably won't have a good number of recovered b/c folks who have very mild cases during this crisis time aren't being tested and likely won't end up in the recovery numbers.  Once there are enough tests that the majority of people have been tested for antibodies, then those numbers will begin to reflect reality.  In the meantime, you just have to make guesstimates.

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