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The Israel - U.A.E. Agreement


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[Editor's Note: I asked Bruce to write this. He posted it in the Current Events Forum, but I moved it here for now because I want you to read it, and to discuss it if you wish. Cheers, Rocks]

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First, I come in peace, and many of you know I have a Middle Eastern background. I also have a degree in Middle Eastern studies, and I spent a significant amount of time in the national security community as a Middle Eastern area specialist.

The agreement reached  between Israel and the U.A.E., and now Bahrain, is historic by its nature. It's probably long overdue. But it's important to understand that this is not a "peace" deal. It is first and foremost an economic deal. That's an important perspective for us to keep in mind. There was no war between Israel and the oil states, nor was there likely to be one.

Israel craves Arab oil money. The common joke from my Israeli friends asks why they wandered in the desert for 40 years, and didn't settle on any land that had oil. Israel gets a sizable influx of capital from the oil states, and Israel also gets a forward operating base to use in any future contingencies with respect to Iran. The oil states get Israel's technology, some of which is helpful in defending against Iran, but also, some of it is helpful in collecting intelligence on Iran. That's what an economic deal is, more or less.

Meanwhile, I hear from my inside friends that the Trumps and Kushners will cash in, probably with new properties in Tel Aviv and Dubai. There is no altruism here. This deal probably wouldn't have involved the U.S. at all unless the "what's in it for me?" litmus test was passed in Washington.

For this to have been a peace deal, it would have had to include the Palestinians. The Arab-Israeli conflict is largely an Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Because the Palestinians were left out of it, this was not a peace deal. There are many fingers to be pointed here, chief among them the current administration in Washington and its over-the-top support for anything Netanyahu wants, but history will judge whether or not a deal that excludes the Palestinians will move the needle at all on peace.

So, let's applaud what happened as a possible step in the right direction, but let's be careful about what's really at the heart of this deal.

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I had read that part of the motivation for UAE & Bahrain was access to updated US military equipment. You seem to be suggesting otherwise, Israeli tech only?
That makes sense insofar as Israel does not appear to have conceded much else. I believe Israel only agreed to a postponement, not cancellation, of some settlement proposals. Can you clarify the US tech issue?
Given that Anal Dump has been popular in Israel since day one, new properties in the region would be no surprise.
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5 hours ago, Count Bobulescu said:
I had read that part of the motivation for UAE & Bahrain was access to updated US military equipment. You seem to be suggesting otherwise, Israeli tech only?
That makes sense insofar as Israel does not appear to have conceded much else. I believe Israel only agreed to a postponement, not cancellation, of some settlement proposals. Can you clarify the US tech issue?
Given that Anal Dump has been popular in Israel since day one, new properties in the region would be no surprise.

US military equipment is usually dumbed down for export. It still helps Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Boeing, and the rest to keep people employed and make a lot of money with Foreign Military Sales, but the exports aren't our top-of-the-line. Most of our advanced weapons systems also have special capabilities that are removed for foreign sales. So yes, the Emirates and Bahrain will have access to these platforms. But take Saudi Arabia, for example. We have up-gunned the Kingdom beyond any capability to operate the inventory effectively. But, the current administration wants plenty of jobs and profits for our defense industry, because they donate lots of money to political campaigns. Unfortunately, Saudi Arabia being armed to the teeth doesn't result in much in the way of effective outcome.

For more then 50 years, the U.S. has been investing heavily in Israel's Defense Industrial Base -- autoclaves, advanced real-aperture and synthetic-aperture radar technologies, low-observable technologies -- and Israel has purpose-built many systems specifically for operations in the Middle East. Israeli "drones" (the inaccurate word for Unmanned Aerial Systems) are among the best, and the U.A.E. will avail itself of these for intelligence and surveillance operations against Iran. Israel's "Iron Dome" technology, basically an ultra-modern air defense system against missiles and rockets, will also be added to the U.A.E shopping cart. Shared intelligence collection against Iran and other "enemies of my enemies" will also be added to the cart. And Israel's ability to enhance U.S. export materiel with advanced capabilities will also be for sale, maybe at a premium.

Israel will get *a ton* of oil money in exchange for its technology. Israel will also get a foreign base of operations for intelligence collection against Iran. This deal couldn't have worked out any better for Israel, which kind of explains Jared's role and motivation.

The twin realities of Syria being close to a failed state, manipulated by Putin, and Iraq being one of the United States' worst military blunders since Vietnam, also contributed to this arrangement. It's unlikely that a viable Syria and Iraq would have enabled such an arrangement to become a reality.

Back to the Palestinians....(crickets)

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On 9/16/2020 at 6:02 PM, Kibbee Nayee said:

Meanwhile, I hear from my inside friends that the Trumps and Kushners will cash in, probably with new properties in Tel Aviv and Dubai.

You'd have to have rocks (not Don Rocks) in your head to stay in a hotel in Tel Aviv with POTUS on the side in big letters.

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