Count Bobulescu
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Posts posted by Count Bobulescu
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Don't assume that just because I subscribe to Marginal Revolution, I'm a Libertarian.
QuoteHow the coronavirus is changing the culture of science and publication
by Tyler CowenA torrent of data is being released daily by preprint servers that didn’t even exist a decade ago, then dissected on platforms such as Slack and Twitter, and in the media, before formal peer review begins. Journal staffers are working overtime to get manuscripts reviewed, edited, and published at record speeds. The venerable New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) posted one COVID-19 paper within 48 hours of submission. Viral genomes posted on a platform named GISAID, more than 200 so far, are analyzed instantaneously by a phalanx of evolutionary biologists who share their phylogenetic trees in preprints and on social media.
“This is a very different experience from any outbreak that I’ve been a part of,” says epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. The intense communication has catalyzed an unusual level of collaboration among scientists that, combined with scientific advances, has enabled research to move faster than during any previous outbreak. “An unprecedented amount of knowledge has been generated in 6 weeks,” says Jeremy Farrar, head of the Wellcome Trust...
The COVID-19 outbreak has broken that mold. Early this week, more than 283 papers had already appeared on preprint repositories (see graphic, below), compared with 261 published in journals. Two of the largest biomedical preprint servers, bioRxiv and medRxiv, “are currently getting around 10 papers each day on some aspect of the novel coronavirus,” says John Inglis, head of Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press, which runs both servers. The deluge “has been a challenge for our small teams … [they] are working evenings and weekends.”
Here is the full story, via Michael Nielsen.
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Will DC lock out Virginians?
Two potential cases surface in Virginia. [WAMU]
The Contessa sent me on a face mask chase. I was at least a day late and $ short. Three grocery stores, and three pharmacies, OOS, backordered, no ETA.
This virus at 2% fatality is twenty times more lethal than the flu.
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I've always hired a car, and think you would need one for Grasse. I would budget a car for a least 2 days.There are great coastal views between Nice and Monaco, and from the palace in Monaco. There are three roads you can take. Highest = fastest/interstate. Middle = most scenic. Lowest along seashore thru town centers = slowest.You're travelling in low season so driving will be fine. High season coastal driving both east and west of Nice is a nightmare.Ventimiglia, just over the Italian border is worth a trip. Take the middle road (corniche) to Vent and come back the coastal taking in Monaco.
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With apologies to Dean, Axios again..... A clinic in Nebraska is also testing an existing drug on on someone evacuated from the Diamond Princess.
QuoteA lab in North Carolina is working to synthesize a sample of the coronavirus from its genetic code, according to MIT Technology Review.
Why it matters: Creating a pathogen from scratch would allow researchers to rapidly experiment on it without waiting for live samples from an outbreak zone.
- But it also raises the risk that someone could eventually try to recreate a dangerous virus as a weapon.
Driving the news: Coronavirus expert Ralph Baric at the University of North Carolina took the genetic code of the pathogen, posted online last month by Chinese researchers, and ordered custom DNA.
- He will be able to stitch the genes together into a virus indistinguishable from the one that has so far infected more than 81,000 people and killed more than 2,700, MIT Tech's Antonio Regalado writes.
- "This is the future in terms of how the medical research community responds to a new threat,” Baric told Regalado.
Once they've synthesized the virus, researchers will be able to edit it as they might a document, adding and subtracting genes in an effort to understand how it spreads and sickens.
- Past disease events like the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic and the 2014 Ebola outbreak often ran their course before new countermeasures could be developed and distributed.
- Synthesizing the virus could help health officials move almost as fast as the pathogen itself.
The catch: If a virus can be synthesized from nothing more than its genetic code and mail-order DNA, it means a deadly pathogen can never really be eliminated.
- The International Gene Synthesis Consortium, a group of DNA synthesis companies that screens gene orders, prohibits its members from synthesizing the gene sequences of dangerous viruses like smallpox. Only labs registered with the CDC to work with SARS — as Baric's is — will be able to order a complete synthetic copy of the new coronavirus.
- But the consortium only represents 80% of the global DNA synthesis market.
Synthesizing viruses from scratch still requires considerable resources and skill. But as that changes, synthetic biology will present a troubling dual-use dilemma — the same tools that could help counter an outbreak could be employed to create one.
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19 hours ago, DonRocks said:
[To try and nip this in the bud...]
I just thought it funny that elements in Iran are blaming the US, and elements in the US are blaming.....Particularly so in light of Dean recently responding to your thread on War Criminals vs. American Heroes....BBC showing video of Iran's deputy health minister apparently sweating profusely. He, and at least one parliamentarian later claimed to have tested positive, but cynics say it's a scam to lure the public into a false sense of security. They say the minister will disappear for a few days, then return saying no big deal. -
10 hours ago, deangold said:
I am never convinced when I read something in Axios, but these stats are already out if date. The WHO has yet to call it a pandemic but it is at high risk to become one. Many scientists are using the term already. If it isn't, its close.
By the way, the few remaining scientists working in infectious disease that our fearless leader has not fired all agree that closing boarders will not provide containment. I can't wait for the sharpie altered charts showing how excluding Muslims will stop it. From Alabama.
Save to say, don't shoot the messenger, I'll let your comment on Axios slide, its an unnecessary hostage to fortune. There's a reason politicians often say "never say never".
Rush Limbaugh has claimed the virus is a plot to dethrone POTUS.
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Without wishing to spiral down into a conspiracy rabbit hole.....I've seen some "speculation" on a Euro forum concerning the apparent pauses in the spread, both in Hong Kong & Singapore, plus the low incidence in India. One theory advanced is that counter-intuitively, the relatively high temperatures and high humidity in all three places might have a positive impact. Perhaps wrong, but hardly crazy.Here's an article from 2009 that supports that theory. Not good news for northern latitudes, and low humidity environments.Quote
Generally, viruses with lipid envelopes will tend to survive longer at lower (20–30%) RHs. This applies to most respiratory viruses, which are lipid enveloped, including influenza, coronaviruses (including severe acute respiratory syndrome-associated coronavirus), respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza viruses, as well as febrile rash infections caused by measles, rubella, varicella zoster virus (that causes chickenpox; Harper 1961; Schaffer et al. 1976; Ijaz et al. 1985).
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Several boffins have expressed the view that the window for containment has already closed.This is from an Axios newsletter........Quote
Iran has reported 12 deaths but just 66 known cases, an improbable ratio given the virus' 1–2% fatality rate, suggesting a much larger outbreak.
- A local representative in the holy city of Qom said 50 people had died there, though Tehran vehemently denied it.
- Clerics have claimed that to close Qom's shrine to pilgrims would be to give in to "a U.S. plot to undermine the religious institution," per the FT.
- Authorities blamed the virus for record-low turnout in Friday's parliamentary elections.
- The first confirmed cases in Iraq, Afghanistan, Kuwait and Bahrain were all linked back to Iran.
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3 hours ago, deangold said:
Richard Engle, investigative reporter with NBC is in Hong Kong and his researches have him reporting that Chinese doctors say there is vast under-reporting of both cases and deaths. The benign reason for this is that COVID-19 looks like the flu. So many flu cases and deaths have net been tested for COVID-19 and may very well be Covid-19.
A BBC Persian Service reporter, being interviewed on the BBC, said her contacts in Iran are saying the situation there is much worse than official figures suggest, and that large public religious events are continuing as normal.
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Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water.......The legislatures in MD, NY, & NE, are all currently considering digital services tax proposals, similar to the French tax that prompted the wine tariffs. AFAIK, NY has a flat rate of 5%, and MD has four bands ranging from 2.5% to 10%. Testimony in MD suggested, that if passed, it would likely face court challenge.
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Was going to put this in another forum, but since the Open Table thread is here.......
I stumbled across these two unrelated sites recently, and was intrigued by Meitre. It bills itself as an "OpenTable" for restaurants that qualify to serve its diners, not the restaurant's diners...Currently, seems to be primarily LatAm focused, (Born in Uruguay, built in Ca), hints at US ambitionsI wouldn't sign an agreement with an outfit that has only a web form contact on its site. I like to see a phone # and physical address.Perhaps some members here, have the elevated dining status that appears necessary to satisfy Meitre requirements? Do tell!Cuboh seems a better deal, at least for its intended purpose.Their common characteristic is that they were both funded by Y Combinator, whatever that means..... -
Commentators are speculating that in mid February WTO will issue a ruling against the US for subsidies to Boeing, made in retaliation for EU subsidies to Airbus, and this will give the US cover to withdraw the threat of 100%, and end the 25% wine tariffs. Kinda seems that way with the recent announcement of a tariff postponement until at least the end of the year.
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Thanks, although I'm a little suspicious of both the term "natural wine" and of some of its proponents I wish them well, and will give it a try.
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Great suggestion from a small importer at the USTR testimony. Target the scary yellow label, and it's siblings.Transcript of the full testimony is on the USTR site. Before you rush to read it, it's 400 paaaages.......
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Pretty soon you won't be able to find a Rite-Aid. AFAIK all remaining Rite-Aids are converting to Walgreens shortly.
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Quick clarification. When I wrote the post above I had been under the mistaken impression that wine franchise laws were confined to 6-8 mostly southern states. There are in fact 21-22 states with such franchise laws.Here's a background piece on the topic.
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6 hours ago, Mark Slater said:
I think this argument misses the point. My most recent retail job showed me that most European wine sold at retail is in the "value" segment. That means $10 and under. Think of shopping for wine at Trader Joe's and not seeing anything under $10. That's huge. No more $4.99 pinot grigio. Veuve Clicquot on "sale" for $99. $22 for basic Prosecco. I think the public outcry will be huge.
3 hours ago, B.A.R. said:I would say his arguments are far from rational. Because of the byzantine and archaic structure of US wine distribution, a significant portion of wine distributors in the US are small businesses. And let's just assume that only 20% of all of these small business mix of sales is European wine. Once those wines get hit by a tariff of close to 100% those sales are gone. Even worse, many of these distributors have already paid for wines, or will pay for them prior to shipment. The value of their investment is now halved.
Distribution is a clusterfuck of regulations from city/county/state to state. If you own the distribution rights in VA to 100 Italian wineries, and you want to replace that revenue stream with wines from CA, it's damn near impossible. Once a winery designates a distributor, the only way to change is if the distributor (a) loses license, (b) goes bankrupt, or (c) does not sell a set quantity of your wines for a period of time (like, 2 years).
And, because of the same distribution structure, American wineries, in particular small American wineries, will suffer as their distribution may have negative cash flow, attempt to restructure, cut costs, cut payroll, or even worse, fold.
The majority of wine sold at retail from just about everywhere is in the value sector, however you define it.For sure, people won't be happy, but I don't think there'll be a huge outcry. More likely in my view, people will try something different that is tariff free, as the piece said.I find the claims of 100% retail price increases due to 100% tariffs to be exaggerated scaremongering that undermines the credibility of the speaker.Traders everywhere, and not just in the wine trade, often try to use issues such as this to try set new benchmark prices. The consumer should really only have to bear (A) the actual cost of the tariff + (B) the cost to traders of financing the tariff (5% interest?), rather than traders maintaining their percentage margins on artificially high prices, as opposed to the same nominal profit. That way, the consumer doesn't get whacked for an unnecessary additional 20-25% as the numbers below demonstrate.Take Veuve at $50 retail and using approximate 20/25/50 importer/wholesaler/retailer markups that works out to a dockside price of $22, giving the importer $4, wholesaler $7, and retailer $17 per btl.Add 100% tariff = $44 + ($22 x5% tariff financing =$1.1) = $45.1 + $4 +$7+$17 = $73. New price $79.99 discounted to $74.99.The tariff is $22, but the cost of financing it just $1.10.Why do traders need, desire, or expect to take a margin on a government tax? If $4, $7, and $17 were sufficient profit pre tariff, why is something close to that insufficient post tariff? Given that the consumer is on the hook for 100% of the tariff, the only cost to the trade is the $1.10 cost of financing the tariff out of $28 profit.You'll get no disagreement from me that distribution generally, is a cluster, and the specific franchise states, mostly in the south, such as Va, are worst of all.I don't favor tariffs, or seek to minimize their negative effect, but I do take issue with what I view as inaccurate and unwarranted scaremongering.I think too many people fall into the trap of equating a 100% tariff with a 100% retail price increase, when that is not a foregone conclusion.-
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Read a report on testimony to USTR which said wine tariffs were backed by US big tech, (unsurprising if disappointing), but also backed by US cheesemakers, (very surprising and disappointing). Apparently US cheesemakers, unlike (most) US winemakers support tariffs on imported cheese.
Funnily enough, neither alcohol or wine was specifically mentioned in the Federal Register notice, but there is a disclaimer saying that would not preclude them.
Federal Register Notice on Wine Tariffs
List of testifiers:
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On 12/4/2019 at 12:28 AM, curiouskitkatt said:
They're expanding online only wine sales from 14 to 19 states. The significance is that they are moving into areas where they don't have any stores, (something Amazon tried on its own and abandoned years ago). They're partnering to fulfil. The range of wines available is less than fifty.
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6 hours ago, DaveO said:
That article left me cold and unconvinced. Additionally the difference between those two averaged ratings seems insignificant to me, if not to the statisticians. OTOH, while in NY City a couple of weekends ago we ate at a street restaurant and an avenue restaurant (not that the characterization would ever have struck me as being significant). The "street restaurant" was far better than the "avenue restaurant". I'd rate the difference as being significant.
I too take it cum grano salis.One possible explanation for the review number discrepancy might be that the avenues have more (or a higher percentage) of corporate (if not chain) outlets, that have a bigger footprint, and more walk in foot traffic, that results in many more daily covers. -
25,000 Yelp reviews confirm what I suspect most people on this forum already knew. In Manhattan, street restaurants are, on average, "better" than avenue ones.One thing that puzzled me, with so many fewer avenue restaurants, (1,500 v. 18,000) they appear to be racking up reviews at many times the rate of the street restaurants, or am I missing something? Even allowing that the avenues are busier.....Full disclosure, I have never used Yelp, to find or rate.
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14 hours ago, MsDiPesto said:
Apologies, I should have said commissary kitchens where small operations would make, say, spirits, sausages, savory spreads, or jams and jellies, or breads, etc. or even full blown catering to sell to restaurants, etc. Couldn't commissary kitchens in industrial parks do the same as this CloudKitchens venture?
Sure, but it's the corporatisation of commissary kitchens. I guess the intent is to dominate the industry ASAP, like the Uber model. Establish proof of concept first in the US, then internationally.One 10,000sqf warehouse with some communal infrastructure, might have 15 kitchens per, say 100,000 people, equals a lot of warehouses. A 15 kitchen operation might have 10 chain brands and 5 local/ethnics. 40 warehouses/600 kitchens to service metro DC.I doubt you can make the warehouses too big, because of a need to stay local, to avoid long delivery routes. Then market both the individual brands, and the shared warehouse delivery concept, to the local community, again with shared costs, via DoorDash, UberEats etc. I think the concept will work better in suburban than dense urban locations. Currently, they are in LA, SF, and Chicago.-
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Commercial kitchens typically come attached to expensive real estate/build out, and require patrons to visit. Under the CloudKitchens formula, numerous different "brands" can share a lower warehouse cost, to open new kitchens at a fraction of what it would otherwise take.A 2,000sqf sit down might pay $30 - $60 a ft in a suburban location.500sqf at $15 in a warehouse, and with fewer staff, starts to look good. Lower costs allows offering "free" delivery at standard prices.
Nice, France
in The Intrepid Traveler
Posted