Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

[dracisk]

Maryland schools closed starting Monday until 3-27. Think of me as I attempt to telework with a 6-year-old in the house.

[deangold]

This is a sobering thread well worth reading. Here is one of the most important posts:

This is from a  few days ago and the US is still on an Italy like projection with a current lag of about 13/14 days. That means that our immediately recent growth over a few days is faster than the Italian experience. Not surprising given our lack of testing. 

Given my medical history, I will be mostly staying home for now. The spread in the DMV is starting to accelerate. Fairfax County announced 2 additional presumptive positive cases yesterday bringing the total to 6. These cases have not been tested and diagnosed by CDC yet. There is no evidence of community spread yet in Virginia and I will do my bit to help keep it that way. Only necessary trips out of the house. And for now, use delivery service and drop at the door when necessary. 

Amanda Mull of the Atlantic has an article on the ethics, and safety of delivery. In Wuhan, delivery people were considered heros and major weapons in stopping the spread. 

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-how-get-food-safely/608008/

 

[Count Bobulescu]

Gonna be interesting to watch the different approach being taken in the UK. While others are suggesting that country X is Y days <12 behind Italy, the Brits think they are four weeks behind Italy, and are tailoring their response accordingly. They are trying to match their period of peak public response, to the period of greatest danger. 

 

Scroll to 32 minutes of this vid where BoJo turns it over to the boffins. Segment runs 15 minutes.  One says two week school closures right now are a fool's errand, and that 13-16 weeks are needed for significant effect.

 

Why two week school closures are a bust

 

[Count Bobulescu]

Here's the chart I posted at 9pm Tuesday.............

Country, Other	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Total Recovered	Active Cases	Serious, Critical	Tot Cases/ 1M pop
China	80,777	+23	3,158	+22	61,481	16,138	4,794	56.1
Italy	10,149	+977	631	+168	1,004	8,514	877	167.9
Iran	8,042	+881	291	+54	2,731	5,020		95.7
S. Korea	7,513	+35	58	+5	247	7,208	54	146.5
France	1,784	+372	33	+3	12	1,739	86	27.3
Spain	1,695	+464	36	+6	135	1,524	101	36.3
Germany	1,565	+341	2		18	1,545	9	18.7
USA	975	+271	30	+4	15	930	8	2.9
Diamond Princess	696		7		245	444	32

Here's the current chart. Switzerland thru Japan all had fewer cases than Diamond Princess on Tuesday.

Country, Other	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Total Recovered	Active Cases	Serious, Critical	Tot Cases/ 1M pop
China	80,824	+11	3,189	+13	65,573	12,062	3,610	56.2
Italy	17,660		1,266		1,439	14,955	1,328	292.1
Iran	12,729	+1,365	611	+97	4,339	7,779		151.5
S. Korea	8,086	+107	72	+5	714	7,300	59	157.7
Spain	6,043	+811	191	+58	517	5,335	293	129.2
Germany	4,181	+506	8		46	4,127	9	49.9
France	3,661		79		12	3,570	154	56.1
USA	2,499	+252	51	+2	49	2,399	10	7.5
Switzerland	1,375	+236	13	+2	4	1,358		158.9
UK	1,140	+342	21	+10	18	1,101	20	16.8
Norway	1,052	+56	2	+1	1	1,049	27	194.1
Netherlands	959	+155	12	+2	2	945	45	56.0
Sweden	953	+139	2	+1	1	950	2	94.4
Denmark	827	+23	1	+1	1	825	2	142.8
Japan	804	+70	22	+1	122	660	35	6.4
Diamond Princess

[DonRocks]

"France To Close all Restaurants, Cafes, Cimemas, and Clubs Due to Coronavirus" from Barbara Wojazer on cnn.com

"Spain Limits Movements, Closes Shops, To Stop Virus Spread" by Arritz Parra and Joseph Wilson on abcnews.go.com

[Ericandblueboy]

The U.S. needs to shut everything down as well, otherwise this optional self-quarantine won't do much good.

[Pat]

Given all the accounts I saw online today about how packed bars were in different parts of the country last night (including a photo of a crowded Bourbon Street), I'm really concerned that St. Patrick's Day celebrations are a very bad kind of fuel right now.

Uncertainty is difficult for people to deal with, in addition to micro and macro factors that have to be balanced when assessing risk. In order to avoid a public health catastrophe, though, extreme actions have to be taken before it's obvious to the general public that the situation is dire. By then it is too late.

Watching what's played out in other countries, especially Italy, I am very concerned. We've had the opportunity to learn from multiple countries and that knowledge looks like it might go to waste.

[deangold]

From the Who situation report 52 to 54 the deaths in the us were growing at 46%. That is they double in less than 4 days.

We are at 60  today. in 4 days, it will be approximately 120 if we do not bend the curve down.

In 8 days, 240 

In 12 days 480

And in 16 days, close to 1,000

[DonRocks]

16 minutes ago, deangold said:

From the Who situation report 52 to 54 the deaths in the us were growing at 46%. That is they double in less than 4 days.

We are at 60  today. in 4 days, it will be approximately 120 if we do not bend the curve down.

In 8 days, 240 

In 12 days 480

And in 16 days, close to 1,000

Perhaps so, but I also look at China, and theirs has slown down drastically (you could debate *why* theirs has gone down drastically, of course - has COVID-19 peaked there? Did they contain it differently? Are patterns of weather, contact, and travel different than here?)

I think it would be useful if the major news outlets interviewed people with the virus, so we could get a gauge on how sick they are - that's one piece of anecdotal knowledge I lack.

[deangold]

6 hours ago, DonRocks said:

Perhaps so, but I also look at China, and theirs has slown down drastically (you could debate *why* theirs has gone down drastically, of course - has COVID-19 peaked there? Did they contain it differently?

China locked down large numbers of people. They equipped delivery people in PPE and that was how most people received food. We had full bars for St Patrick's Day yesterday.

[weezy]

8 hours ago, DonRocks said:

Perhaps so, but I also look at China, and theirs has slown down drastically (you could debate *why* theirs has gone down drastically, of course - has COVID-19 peaked there? Did they contain it differently? Are patterns of weather, contact, and travel different than here?)

I think it would be useful if the major news outlets interviewed people with the virus, so we could get a gauge on how sick they are - that's one piece of anecdotal knowledge I lack.

Here's the thing -- age and risk factors shoot up the severity of the illness dramatically.  30 year olds no other issues, about the same.  70 year olds, no other issues, 2-3x worse illness.  70 year olds with issues, big problems.   Seasonal flu in the most at-risk population has a little under 2% mortality rate; Covid-19 has a little under 15% mortality rate with the numbers known about a week ago, and requires a huge amount of intervention to keep it that low (ventilators and blood oxygenation transfusion) in ICU for 21-30 days, plus on supplemental oxygen for another 3-6 weeks.  Covid-19 causes interstitial pneumonia, which basically means the aveolar sacs in the lungs cannot function and these sacs are how the oxygen we breathe in transfers into our bloodstream.   USA is expected as of 3 days to have at least 200,000 serious cases; USA has ~45,000 ICU beds.

A friend who used to run human drug trial studies has read early reports that there might be a correlation between ACE2 receptors and higher risks, which can explain why kids are less likely to get Covid-19 even if they carry the coronavirus; they're just too young to have developed arterial plaques.  Folks on ACE2 blockers have a lower incidence of Covid-19 (so far) than people with the same health issues not on blockers.  Because the blockers can cause dangerously low blood pressure, prophylactic prescription is not recommended.  However, protease inhibitors, which are antiviral drugs similar to what is used in HIV treatment, might be a line of defense.   

Naturally occurring protease inhibitors in plants include most legumes cereals, bananas, apples, raisins, pineapples, cucumbers, spinach, cabbage and potatoes.  So, time to make a big batch of lentil-spinach soup, right?  I know I will!

[lion]

7 hours ago, DonRocks said:

I think it would be useful if the major news outlets interviewed people with the virus, so we could get a gauge on how sick they are - that's one piece of anecdotal knowledge I lack.

Here is a YouTube video from Gene of Audioholics describing getting and going thru having the virus. 

[Pat]

2 hours ago, deangold said:

China locked down large numbers of people. They equipped delivery people in PPE and that was how most people received food. We had full bars for St Patrick's Day yesterday.

We also had a poorly thought out and implemented travel policy revision that led to massive numbers of people being packed into major airports (ORD, DFW, JFK) like sardines for many, many hours yesterday waiting to be processed from overseas. After not checking anyone for illness regardless of where they were coming from, they suddenly were checking all the people coming from Europe but didn't have enough staff or enough space to keep people safely apart.

[Pat]

Quote

might be a correlation between ACE2 receptors and higher risks,

This is presumably related to the reports yesterday that taking anti-inflammatories for fever for this might lead to worse outcomes than taking acetaminophen. That had something to do with the ACE2 factor. I think that was based on some young, previously healthy people in France, but I'm having trouble keeping all this straight. I think I saw it in a Guardian article.

 

[Count Bobulescu]

The number of cases outside China has just surpassed the number within. 80K v.81K

Out of 82K cases that have been closed globally, (recovered plus fatalities) there have been 6,000 fatalities 7%, plus another 6K cases 7%,  of the remaining 80K, currently considered critical.

Currently there are big differences in cases per capita by country. Italy is worst with 350 per 1M of population. S. Korea, Iran, and Spain at 165, Germany, France, at 65, UK, 20, and US at 9.  At a similar rate to current Italian, US could expect 115,000 cases, and 8,000 fatalities. Hopefully.........

 

[Mark Slater]

 

https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/03/14/POTUS-is-trying-to-run-a-pandemic-response-like-a-business-with-disastrous-results/?fbclid=IwAR0LJE8U8C-1kZd5XHYup6S-H9-L4kxoAxBix1p378q3wkh00rvJriefuQo

[astrid]

This is pretty comprehensive.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/dont-panic-the-comprehensive-ars-technica-guide-to-the-coronavirus/

When assessing your personal risk, remember that 80% mild cases is everything that doesn't put you in a hospital bed.  In Italy and China, this typically means you stay home or at a quarantine center until you have trouble breathing and need supplemental oxygen.  Almost 90% had fever.  Minor can still mean weeks of recovery time, especially if you are required to quarantine yourself afterwards to protect family and coworkers from infection.  Why would anyone put themselves and their family through that, or worse, for green beer?

[DonRocks]

14 hours ago, astrid said:

Why would anyone put themselves and their family through that, or worse, for green beer?

This is a rhetorically effective, if somewhat glib, way of describing a situation where a consequence may happen anyway, regardless of whether someone goes out for green beer (which I've never done in my life - yuck). Last Saturday, I was horrified to see so many people in Arrowine, and should have left immediately, but we wanted some pantry items, so we didn't; we quickly got our comestibles and got out of there as quickly as possible, and it might (or might not) have been enough. From what I hear, many places where people go to stock up on things were extremely crowded, so the damage may (or may not) already be done - or perhaps it will be done at some unknown moment in the near future for those venturing outside to run necessary errands. I suspect many people's actions last week may not be the same as their actions this week.

I recently heard Dr. Anthony Fauci taking phone-in questions on a radio show. Someone asked what they should do when it comes to handling and opening their mail. Dr. Fauci's thoughtful, but incomplete, response was that, 'once mail is in your mailbox, enough time has probably passed so that it's safe'; what he neglected to address was the situation when your postal carrier has COVID-19, and handles or coughs on a letter, twenty-minutes before you open it. Unless we've been tested, none of us can say, today, that we don't already have COVID-19; we can only hope, and limit our chances of contracting it by using conventionally accepted protocols (which doesn't mean they work). It is possible, albeit surely less possible, that someone can barricade themselves and live like a hermit for the next month, going out only for essentials, and still come down with COVID-19 regardless.

If someone is boneheaded enough to go out and get soused in Savannah, GA where the river runs green on Saint Patrick's Day (although I doubt it will this year), they haven't been very aware recently, and are putting themselves at much greater risk, but we really don't know *how* much greater risk until specialists and historians begin analyzing what has already happened. Gas pumps, credit card transactions, going to the drug store, eating anything resembling fresh food, taking a walk down the street - any number of interactions most of us would deem "essential" in our day and age - these all increase the risk of acquiring COVID-19; we just don't know by how much.

This article you referenced last Thursday is a good one, and I suggest people take an hour out of their day and read it thoughtfully and carefully. If you're skipping the article just to get through this post, you're making a mistake. Go back and read it when you're finished reading this.

It bears mention that the 1918 flu (erroneously called the "Spanish flu" because Spain was the *one* country who honestly reported what was happening), flared in late Spring, died down in early Summer, seemingly disappeared during mid Summer, and returned with a vengeance later that year (and early in 1919) and killed the vast majority of its victims during the second and third peaks of this trimodal graph:

"Why the Second Wave of the 1918 Spanish [sic] Flu Was so Deadly" by Dave Roos on history.com

[ktmoomau]

Well the Virginia court's system was a real mess.  Every jurisdiction had different rules for different courts on what is going on, as of right now they finally issued an order from the Virginia Supreme Court.  Only a few jurisdictions allow online filing for certain courts, none of the Juvenile and Domestic Relations Courts up here have online filing, so this is going to be the wild west.  We have a lot of Wills, Trust and Estates matters we are working on to get done quickly 🥺. 

My Mom went home to her house in Garrett County last week, prepared to hunker down.  It was really hard not to hug her or touch her, but I tried to keep a safe distance and clean, clean, clean home. She isn't going to be with others or in public for a while just to be safe due to her age, so we will try to do video chats and etc. 

We went to Richmond to take food and some extra supplies we had on hand to our BIL, SIL and new baby, but we weren't out and about galavanting, we just went down to help them and came home.  I am so grateful they had friends that thought about them while they were in the hospital and picked them up packs of diapers and formula, people have been just leaving meals and texting them.  I appreciate everyone who has been so kind to them.  We ordered sushi to go as my SIL was really craving it.  I was a little shocked to hear that the restaurant was still packed when Hubby went to pick it up.  I do fear that because younger people (I say younger, there were an appalling amount of not younger people at the Starbucks we drove through to get coffee on our trip) aren't getting many symptoms, they aren't taking this very seriously.  I have been trying to take this very seriously, I saw how my co-workers and loved ones dealt with the flu strain that wasn't covered by most of the flu shots, it wasn't optimal. My poor renter, he has to travel for very important government work, and got home last Friday after the stores were pretty much empty.  I am sure we have enough, so have told him, whatever he needs, we have it and will share, not to panic if the stores were empty.  

Hubby has been ordered to work from home.  My office had to be somewhat operational because of the courts, but we are really being careful, most the attorneys are working from home, there are only a couple here at a time to make sure we function, and we are doing phone and video consults. We are very spaced out at the office, luckily, and are disinfecting like mad.  All of our staff is over 50. Thank goodness we have a spacious office, most of our attorneys already worked from home a fair amount and we're very spaced out anyway. 

I don't think it's good for people to be excessively worried or panicked, BUT I also think people need to think about the effect their actions have on the lives and safety of others, I don't think we are doing either particularly well at the moment.  All I can say is- stay safe, try to keep others safe in all that you do, and be as kind as you can in a safe way.    

[DonRocks]

Walgreens aisle

[Count Bobulescu]

Sometimes bad stuff just happens, and can't be avoided, and sometimes it can be easily avoided.....

SoftBank Owned Patent Troll, Using Monkey Selfie Law Firm, Sues To Block Covid-19 Testing, Using Theranos Patents 

Believe it or Not

[zgast]

39 minutes ago, Count Bobulescu said:

Sometimes bad stuff just happens, and can't be avoided, and sometimes it can be easily avoided.....

SoftBank Owned Patent Troll, Using Monkey Selfie Law Firm, Sues To Block Covid-19 Testing, Using Theranos Patents 

Believe it or Not

Patent trolls suck - these guys have a particular level of suck that goes beyond the norm.

[astrid]

I'll match your patent troll with https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.theverge.com/platform/amp/2020/3/17/21184308/coronavirus-italy-medical-company-threatens-sue-3d-print-valves-treatments

[Ericandblueboy]

I get the sinking feeling that lock-down/self-quarantine is just delaying the inevitable but in the process it will destroy the global economy.  Some younger people are calling it boomer remover, but in reality the pandemic will screw the old and the young.  Some of the elderly will die, and the young will be saddled with repaying the stimulus package and job losses.  

ETA: When this crisis is over (whenever they come up with a vaccine), we can assess the damage done.  I'm not sure the current delay tactics truly is the best course of action.

[Rhone1998]

28 minutes ago, Ericandblueboy said:

I get the sinking feeling that lock-down/self-quarantine is just delaying the inevitable

This idea assumes that the number of deaths the virus causes is a simple function of how many people get it. This sounds reasonable but it is, counterintuitively, *not true*.  The death rate is a function of how many people get it *and* over what period of time. Without the lockdowns you get spikes in cases and spikes in cases mean sick people die because they get denied care (eg rationed ventilators) that could otherwise save them. The lockdowns will save lives over the course of the disease, they don’t just push deaths down the road. 

[deangold]

Ideally we would have mass testing so we could concentrate the quarantine/distancing to those needing it. But it still would be a major effort. The city in Italy that tested everyone had amazing results. 

[DonRocks]

4 hours ago, Ericandblueboy said:

I get the sinking feeling that lock-down/self-quarantine is just delaying the inevitable but in the process it will destroy the global economy.  Some younger people are calling it boomer remover, but in reality the pandemic will screw the old and the young.  Some of the elderly will die, and the young will be saddled with repaying the stimulus package and job losses.  

ETA: When this crisis is over (whenever they come up with a vaccine), we can assess the damage done.  I'm not sure the current delay tactics truly is the best course of action.

Although I haven't said so, I've been thinking the same thing.

Seeing as though we now have a "wartime President" - in wars, we have "acceptable collateral damage." 

Without being unfeeling or uncaring, allow me to at least ask: Is it really worth it to disrupt the entire nation's way of life for four months, as opposed to having, perhaps, 10,000 deaths?

Society has currently determined that it is, and I won't argue otherwise, but I have no problem putting the issue out for discussion.

[zgast]

8 hours ago, DonRocks said:

Although I haven't said so, I've been thinking the same thing.

Seeing as though we now have a "wartime President" - in wars, we have "acceptable collateral damage." 

Without being unfeeling or uncaring, allow me to at least ask: Is it really worth it to disrupt the entire nation's way of life for four months, as opposed to having, perhaps, 10,000 deaths?

Society has currently determined that it is, and I won't argue otherwise, but I have no problem putting the issue out for discussion.

Quarantine for months should not be necessary - we really need to ramp up the testing capability, though. That's what has allowed China, Singapore and other countries to flatten the curve. Identify cases and ringfence them aggressively. That buys time to work towards a vaccine.

[Rhone1998]

12 hours ago, DonRocks said:

Without being unfeeling or uncaring, allow me to at least ask: Is it really worth it to disrupt the entire nation's way of life for four months, as opposed to having, perhaps, 10,000 deaths?

This article mentions 2.2 million

[DonRocks]

3 hours ago, Rhone1998 said:

This article mentions 2.2 million

That is a very high number - this article mentions 1.1 million in a worst-case scenario, but that's still a very high number: 1.1-million people is as many U.S. citizens as have died in *every single war this country has ever fought*, from the Revolutionary War to the Global War on Terror (citation pbs.org).

[deangold]

On 3/19/2020 at 2:31 PM, DonRocks said:

That is a very high number - this article mentions 1.1 million in a worst-case scenario, but that's still a very high number: 1.1-million people is as many U.S. citizens as have died in *every single war this country has ever fought*, from the Revolutionary War to the Global War on Terror (citation pbs.org).

I would take the Imperial College number very seriously. I think that this is a worst case scenario of no response which is not where we are. But our medical capacity is horrendously poor right now. We have not ordered out the military to set up isolation wards, mobile hospitals like it says in the medical emergency plan. Tesla says he can manufacture respirators & ventilators, but dr POTUS is not ordering the production of masks, ventilators. In 6 months time we could have a seriously ramped up supply if the government orders them. Most states cannot run deficits, so the feds have to do it.

The 1.1 million from the Post is not even given a cite. That number is .34% of the population. Let's say we have 0.5% mortality. That translates to 22 million infected or less than 10%. Right now our Mortality rate is low but our growth rate is very high. Other countries have had big moves in mortality as time goes by. I think 1.1 million is quite possibly where we end up with our current response. 

[astrid]

Meanwhile, in the Hamptons...https://nypost.com/2020/03/19/we-should-blow-up-the-bridges-coronavirus-leads-to-class-warfare-in-hamptons/

[Pat]

On 3/19/2020 at 8:29 PM, deangold said:

I would take the Imperial College number very seriously.

I'm not sure I understood the connection correctly, but I believe that was also the study that caused Boris Johnson and his advisors to change course from their approach -- only the most high risk staying out of circulation and just letting the virus move through the population unfettered, with the expectation there would be herd immunity at some point. The projected number of deaths for the much-smaller UK was so very high it jolted them into realizing they couldn't continue with their approach, so that government sure took it seriously. (Am I correct on this apparent cause-effect?)

[deangold]

14 hours ago, Pat said:

(Am I correct on this apparent cause-effect?)

Spot on. The Imperial college numbers also line up with the guy from Harvard School of Epidemiology.

[astrid]

[...]

Yeah, you are using this forum for wish fulfillment on something that's already closed in a way that you didn't like.  I am paying attention to what politicians and public officials of all strips are actually doing right now.  But after I call out uncomfortable facts, you're shutting me down with the typical "opinions may differ" and "how dare you use this sacred forum to disagree with me" tactics that have become part for course for inside the Beltway "opinion leaders," even if it's just just a thread on a foodie blog by two people with zero formal medical or public policy training.

Frontline health workers are being sent in without PPE, now, in US hospitals.  They're told to use scarves for protection. Even in Wuhan, they only ran low on PPEs for a very short period.  In the US, it looks like supplies are what's on hospital storerooms right now for the foreseeable future. 

Meanwhile, early this week, Joe Biden and Tom Perez still wanted people to go vote.  Even Bernie wasn't good, he should have publicly called for a delay and vote by mail, and affirmatively told his supporters to stay home.  I don't see Congressional Democrats pushing for job guarantee or UBI, rent/mortgage holidays as in Italy or France, nationalization of any companies receiving bailout, or free healthcare at point of service.  What I do hear are means testing, maybe no stock buybacks next year please, and keep voting for someone that DNC has pulled every dirty trick imaginable to coronate...and MSM had done everything possible to hide his severe mental deteriorating from the public. 

And while helping little people is moral hazard and be unaffordable, nothing is said about the trillions in lending facilities to prop up Wall Street.  Nothing is said about the fact that nobody needs billions to live and most of the values liberated by these billionaires are from making people's lives worse, financial engineering, monopolistic rentier arrangements, and destroying the holding capacity of the Earth.  Nothing is said about what the hell is US doing in Iraq, where the government explicitly want Americans out, or hundreds of other places where American military presence is not wanted by locals.

So I can care less that others "disagree" with me.  I am just stating facts as I see them, unlike your numerous unsupported and highly inflammatory dreamcasting opinion posts.  And the last 3 months have been wonderfully, wonderfully clarifying for me and a lot of under 40s. Boomers gonna Boomer, you can't even keep your own vow for half a day.

[DonRocks]

Did you hear the one about a group of people with a free membership walking into their club and shitting all over the floor?

"Janitor!"

<I peer up from behind my computer screen.>

"Clean this up."

So I did, as well as I could. So much time went into writing the previous post that I stripped the addressee information, and will leave it up for a few hours.

No more soup for you!

[Count Bobulescu]

Here's a free FT piece on the Imperial College Study referenced above. 

UK Covid 19 Response

---

First a bad news, then a good news story from OZ.

I noted up thread that the current OZ PM is not generally a fan of science or any restrictions etc. 

Sydney Morning Herald

Vendors anxious as 35 coronavirus cases linked to wedding

Thirty-five people linked to a wedding south of Sydney have tested positive for coronavirus, as wedding industry vendors become increasingly anxious about being exposed the the virus.

Good news....Scroll down to the story on Melbourne

Oz scientists may have a jump on vaccine

---

In addition to the sites Dean mentioned above, here are two more.

These people use data primarily provided by the European CDC 

ourworldindata

A seventeen year old in Seattle Avi Schiffman (sp ?) is getting a lot of attention for this. Simple & easy.

https://ncov2019.live/data

[Count Bobulescu]

I rarely praise Twitter etc. but this thread is a good read.

 

Costs of Vaccine Development

 

[deangold]

From the WHO situation reports:

I check the WHO situation reports daily. There are great weaknesses in their data and it is usually a day or more behind Worldometer or Johns Hopkins data. But it is easy to track changes because they make all past reports available.

China had 116 new cases in their situation report 61. {this number disagrees with Worldometer}

In report 60 it was 126

In report 59 it was 58

In report 58 it was 39

From South Korea

61: 147 {this number disagrees with Worldometer}

60: 239

59: 93

58: 84

These have to be disturbing trends that need exploration. Again, they do not match Worldometer's numbers.

[lion]

Gene of Audioholics has posted a couple more videos to follow-up getting a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19. We shared it with some family members since he carefully explains how he has tried to stop from developing pneumonia. 

Living Coronavirus

Dealing with Retest, Isolation & Recovery

How I'm managing my COVID-19 symptoms

Even though this is a website that focuses on great restaurants and cooking, the danger is real. Be safe people!

 

[deangold]

12 hours ago, deangold said:

From the WHO situation reports:

I check the WHO situation reports daily. There are great weaknesses in their data and it is usually a day or more behind Worldometer or Johns Hopkins data. But it is easy to track changes because they make all past reports available.

China had 116 new cases in their situation report 61. {this number disagrees with Worldometer}

In report 60 it was 126

In report 59 it was 58

In report 58 it was 39

From South Korea

61: 147 {this number disagrees with Worldometer}

60: 239

59: 93

58: 84

These have to be disturbing trends that need exploration. Again, they do not match Worldometer's numbers.

Report 62:

Korea:   98

China:     82

[Pat]

The cases in the District seem to be skewing pretty young to me, with quite a few cases of people in their 20s and 30s and not so many in the 60+ range. Given that testing is not widespread these patients must be fairly sick to be tested, unless they are being tested as contacts of other cases.

What I have been paying particular attention to is the number of children infected. Since the first confirmed case of a child was announced on March 19, there have been 5 preteens and 1 young teen [8m, 9f, 11f, 8f, 10m, 13m].

I haven't checked for the number of cases of children in other US cities, but given the size of the District and lack of widespread testing, this seems somehow noteworthy.

[Count Bobulescu]

1 hour ago, Pat said:

The cases in the District seem to be skewing pretty young to me, with quite a few cases of people in their 20s and 30s and not so many in the 60+ range.

 

Photos from the Cherry Blossoms over the weekend suggest a significant number of people not practicing social distancing. 

If we get to lock down status, pet owners can take heart. In Spain they've been pimping out their dogs for multiple walks a day at $30 a go.

[Count Bobulescu]

On 3/22/2020 at 11:47 AM, deangold said:

From the WHO situation reports:

I check the WHO situation reports daily. There are great weaknesses in their data and it is usually a day or more behind Worldometer or Johns Hopkins data. But it is easy to track changes because they make all past reports available.

China had 116 new cases in their situation report 61. {this number disagrees with Worldometer}

In report 60 it was 126

In report 59 it was 58

In report 58 it was 39

From South Korea

61: 147 {this number disagrees with Worldometer}

60: 239

59: 93

58: 84

These have to be disturbing trends that need exploration. Again, they do not match Worldometer's numbers.

Paging Dean.............

COVID-19 deaths and cases: how do sources compare?

There are thre big global datasets on COVID19: the World Health Organization, Johns Hopkins University, and the European CDC

We brought the data from all 3 together to allow you to compare the data – globally and for every country in the world.

We also explain why we stopped using WHO data.

 

our world in data

 

 

[deangold]

The only reason I used WHO was there is an easily available time line. I have found the charts from Worldometer on daily deaths and you can create a daily chart by hovering your pointer over the graph, which isn't ideal. One nice feature on Worldometer is they have charts available in normal view or in logarithmic view. The log charts allow you to see the growth rate change. 

[Count Bobulescu]

NY state with 25K cases, although not as densely populated as Italy, is now at comparable per capita infection rates of 105/100K, and considered 12 days behind, so more likely to end up worse than Italy..

[deangold]

Today the US rate of growth of mortality hit 40% 

It took 31 days to hit 109

It took 2 days to hit 207

2 days to hit 302

1 day to hit 413

1 more day it was 553

Today it is 775.

Today New York is at 114. Where will it be in 7 days? About 800 if this kind of growth occurs. 

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Italy has had mortality rates increasing exponentially but at a slowing rate from Feb 26 until yesterday. It's mortality increased from 12 to 6077. That is in less than a month. Today it's growth rate jumped back up and now they have 6820.

Source https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

[Pat]

46 new cases announced in DC today, more than twice what it was each of the last few days. No children. Largest age group people in their 20s (14), then people in their 30s (12). The other 20 were divided among the other age groups, the oldest a 75-year-old female.

[ktmoomau]

I saw on David Chang's instagram that Floyd Cardoz died of Covid 19.  I am so sad for his family and friends.  I just watched that episode of Ugly Delicious, and I wish I had gotten to eat his food, he looked like a really cool person. Stay safe.

[DonRocks]

15 minutes ago, ktmoomau said:

I saw on David Chang's instagram that Floyd Cardoz died of Covid 19.  I am so sad for his family and friends.  I just watched that episode of Ugly Delicious, and I wish I had gotten to eat his food, he looked like a really cool person. Stay safe.

I heard on Mar 6 that Gray Kunz passed away (but *not* from COVID-19).